The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is on track to achieve an unprecedented victory in Sunday's state election in Saxony-Anhalt, potentially becoming the first party outside the traditional center-left or center-right blocs to win an outright majority in a German state parliament since World War II.
Political analysts suggest this outcome could signify a major shift in Germany's political landscape, challenging the established post-war order. "The reason Saxony-Anhalt matters is that the AfD is no longer just knocking on the door of power. It may be close to kicking it open," said Daniel Schatz, a foreign policy expert with a doctorate in political science.
The AfD, described as a nationalist, anti-immigration party, has gained traction by campaigning on issues such as tighter immigration controls, a stronger emphasis on German national identity, rejection of climate policies, and a softer stance toward Russia. The party has been accused by Germany's domestic intelligence office of being a "right-wing extremist endeavor."
Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, has a broad appeal, amplified by a significant social media presence, including over 700,000 followers on TikTok. His professional demeanor and community-focused messaging have been noted for lending respectability to the party's platform.
A win for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt would breach the "Brandmauer," or "firewall," that other German parties have maintained, refusing to cooperate with the AfD. The party is currently the second-largest in the federal parliament.
AfD's national co-chair, Alice Weidel, has advocated for closing Germany's borders and exiting the Schengen treaty, citing concerns over internal security and what she terms "Islamization." She has also called for the revocation of protected status for Syrian refugees and a halt to their naturalization.
In February, a German court put on hold the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution's classification of the AfD as a "confirmed right-wing extremist" group, stating there was insufficient evidence to characterize the entire party as extremist, despite potentially unconstitutional statements and policies.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has expressed concern that an AfD-led government in Saxony-Anhalt could deter international investors. Polling data indicates the AfD holds a significant lead over the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD has also shown strength in polls for upcoming elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin.
Young voters, particularly those aged 18-25, are increasingly supporting the AfD, with the party tripling its results among this demographic in the 2021 national election compared to previous results. Economic factors, including rising expenses and unemployment, are contributing to this trend, according to political science researcher Janek Treiber.
Germany's unique electoral system allows a party to win a majority with less than 50% of the vote if smaller parties fall below the 5% threshold. This mechanism could allow the AfD to form a government in Saxony-Anhalt even if a majority of voters cast ballots for other parties.