Russian President Vladimir Putin may escalate attacks on the West and potentially stage incursions into NATO territory, military experts have warned. U.S. and European leaders are observing increasing signs of Moscow conducting probing attacks aimed at testing the alliance's resolve, including incidents involving Russian missiles in Poland and drones flown into Romania.
As Russia faces challenges in Ukraine, analysts speculate about Putin's intentions to intensify aggressive actions toward European allies in the near term. Philip Ingram, a former British Army colonel, stated that Russia is already striking Europe and NATO on a weekly basis through various means, including explosive drones near German airports and unidentified drones over military bases in Germany, Denmark, and the U.S. He also cited Russian fighter jets entering Baltic airspace, Russian drones in Polish airspace, and surveillance or disruption of undersea cables.
Ingram predicted that Russian attacks are likely to increase, suggesting that Putin is pushing the boundaries for an Article 5 response, which mandates mutual defense among NATO members. One theory posits that Putin could seize a city or region in Poland or one of the Baltic states, all of which have strongly supported Ukraine. Former British Army officer Hamish de Bretton-Gordon indicated that Putin might consider a "small incursion" into Latvia or Estonia, describing current actions as "hybrid warfare" involving cyber and espionage.
The Baltic states have bolstered their border defenses against Russia and its ally Belarus. Lithuania, for example, directs 5.3 percent of its GDP to defense, the highest among NATO members. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has noted concerns about "kinetic operations" that are likely directed against critical infrastructure.
NATO members believe Putin is already engaged in probing attacks to fracture the alliance. Western fighter jets have been scrambled numerous times recently to intercept drones, and Ukraine intercepted a drone that entered Romanian airspace. Figures from NATO's Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum indicate a significant increase in fighter jet scrambles, with a 250 percent rise in July compared to the previous year, highlighting Russia's assertive stance.
Last month, Washington cautioned that Russia might be planning an armed incursion into Poland to gauge NATO's reaction. This provocation could involve Russian troops crossing into Poland, with vital infrastructure potentially targeted by missiles and drones. Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki suggested that the U.S. had been warning Warsaw about such plans. The objective of such a strategy, according to reports, would be to create a crisis intended to deter Western nations from continuing their support for Ukraine. Polish security experts have also voiced concerns about potential small troop incursions across the NATO border by Russia and Belarus.
Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), believes the most probable method Putin would employ against NATO allies is a "hybrid attack that falls below the Article 5 threshold." She explained that Moscow has already utilized tactics such as sabotage, airspace violations, and cyberattacks to test allied resolve and understand the limits of NATO's response mechanisms without triggering a conventional military reaction.
Seskuria noted that the Baltic states and Poland have been primary targets of this hybrid campaign, experiencing drone incursions, GPS jamming, and suspected damage to undersea cables. She anticipates Russia will intensify these non-military tactics to intimidate NATO members, strain frontline societies, and diminish support for Ukraine. The recent incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany is seen as a qualitative escalation, demonstrating Moscow's willingness to increase hybrid pressure.
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian drone strike on August 5 killed at least 13 people in the Russian city of Nizhnekamsk, striking industrial facilities and residential buildings. The attack, which hit an oil refinery, resulted in one of the highest civilian tolls in Russia in months. Russian investigators opened a criminal case, terming it a terrorist attack and accusing Kyiv of deliberately targeting civilians. Ukraine and Russia have both maintained they do not target civilians. Seven Uzbek citizens and one Tajik citizen were among those killed. The strike occurred at the TANECO oil refinery, which Ukraine had previously targeted in early June. This campaign against Russian oil refineries aims to impact Russia's economy and bring the costs of the war home to its citizens.
These events occur amidst ongoing accusations between both sides of lethal attacks. On August 4, three people were killed and 37 wounded in a Russian attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine, while Russian authorities in Belgorod reported five killed and 25 wounded by a Ukrainian drone attack.