A significant and growing bloc of Australian voters, disillusioned by issues such as migration, housing affordability, and the cost of living, are fueling the rise of Pauline Hanson's One Nation party and presenting a challenge to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor government, according to population researcher Bob Birrell.
Birrell, president of the Australian Population Research Institute (APRI), stated that the groundwork for a right-wing surge in traditionally Labor-voting areas has been developing for years. These concerns have galvanized voters who feel neglected by the major political parties, with One Nation emerging as the primary beneficiary.
APRI research indicates that a substantial segment of the electorate, described as 'patriots' and constituting 50 to 60 percent of voters, are increasingly drawn to the messaging of parties like One Nation. Birrell noted that these voters, who hold strong views on Australian national identity and are often critical of progressive policies, including high levels of migration and multiculturalism, have not been actively engaged by political parties until recently.
"There is a constituency that's potentially there to be mobilised," Birrell told the Daily Mail. "These issues are now on the front pages and these voters are much more likely to express an opinion or vote against the party they identify as adding to the problem."
He suggested that while Labor maintains strong support among progressive, inner-city voters, the party is becoming increasingly vulnerable among working-class Australians who perceive that Labor no longer represents their interests.
Migration as a Central Issue
Birrell pointed to the government's migration policies as a significant driver of voter frustration. He argued that the post-pandemic surge in migration has exacerbated housing shortages and increased competition for jobs and services, issues that many Australians now directly link to rising housing costs.
Australia's net migration intake, which saw a dramatic decrease during pandemic border closures, rebounded to a record 538,000 in 2022-23. While the intake has since eased, it remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Birrell highlighted that approximately two million temporary migrants currently reside in Australia, a number he believes is too significant for many voters to overlook. He stated that these individuals create intense competition for entry-level jobs and that the scale of population growth is incongruent with a perception of Australia as an egalitarian society.
The 'Underclass' of Temporary Migrants
Birrell also drew attention to the growing population of temporary visa holders, many of whom he described as a vulnerable workforce caught in a complex immigration system. He characterized many as former international students seeking permanent residency but remaining on temporary visas, making them susceptible to exploitation by employers and often pushed into insecure gig economy work.
"Unless they can get permanent residence, they are condemned to temporary residence and vulnerable to exploitation from employers," Birrell said. He referred to this growing cohort as an "underclass," noting that their numbers constitute nearly 10 percent of the population.
He accused both major parties of overseeing the expansion of the temporary migration system over many years, with Labor, in his view, accelerating the trend and showing little inclination for reform. Birrell suggested that the government is hesitant to confront vested interests, such as universities and industries reliant on temporary migrant labor.
This comes as the Labor government faces internal discussions about addressing public concerns regarding migration. A planned announcement on migration reform by Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke was postponed and has yet to be rescheduled. Additionally, a proposal to reduce the annual refugee intake was reportedly abandoned after intervention from Prime Minister Albanese.
Housing Affordability Pressures
While migration is a central theme, Birrell believes housing affordability is the issue most acutely felt by voters. He argued that increased demand for housing, largely driven by population growth stemming from migration, has outpaced efforts to improve affordability, leaving many Australians struggling to purchase homes.
"Our analysis shows the housing crisis is largely due to growth in demand for housing, which is itself primarily driven by migration," Birrell stated. "If Labor remains unwilling to deal with this, the housing crisis is just going to continue."
This issue is particularly resonant among mortgage holders and younger Australians facing challenges in entering the housing market or competing for rentals.
Future Political Landscape
Birrell suggested that the current political realignment may just be starting. He estimates that the 'patriot' voter category, which his research identifies, represents a substantial pool of potential support for parties that strongly campaign on migration and national identity.
Although Labor retains support from progressive voters, younger demographics, and welfare recipients, Birrell indicated that One Nation has considerable room for growth beyond its current polling levels if current trends persist. He warned that if Labor fails to address these voter concerns, it risks paying a significant political price, stating, "The conditions are there for further growth."