Former Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel expressed a grim outlook for the Republican Party's midterm prospects, predicting that Democrats will likely regain control of the House of Representatives. Speaking on CBS News, McDaniel cited redistricting and shifts in the political landscape as factors limiting the number of House seats available, suggesting a less dramatic Republican wave than might have been expected.
McDaniel, who led the RNC from 2017 to 2024, acknowledged that while the party has more financial resources now, the effectiveness of extensive spending remains uncertain. She specifically pointed to the hundreds of millions of dollars invested in Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton's campaign as a questionable allocation of resources. "I mean, we shouldn't be spending $200 million or $300 million in Texas to defend a Senate candidate," McDaniel stated.
Despite the challenges in the House, McDaniel suggested Republicans might have a better chance of retaining the Senate. She noted that in 2018, Republicans surprisingly picked up Senate seats during a midterm election. However, she also acknowledged that the current environment is difficult for Republicans, with President Donald Trump actively campaigning in states like Kansas, South Carolina, and Mississippi, indicating data points that drive his involvement in those specific areas.
Paxton, the former Texas Attorney General, has been a focal point of Trump's campaigning efforts, with multiple visits to Texas in October. Despite Paxton's history of scandals, including a 2015 indictment on securities fraud charges and accusations of bribery from former staff, he remains in a close race. A recent Fox News poll indicated a tie between Paxton and his Democratic opponent, James Talarico. Outside groups have reportedly spent $239 million to support Paxton's campaign.
McDaniel concluded that while all eyes are on the Senate races, the expanded map and Republican turnout offer some encouragement for Republicans seeking to maintain their Senate majority. She expressed concern that the House is "probably going to go to the Democrats."