European Decline Offers Cautionary Tale for America, Analyst Argues

The foundations of European civilization are eroding, marked by civil unrest and fiscal strain, offering a stark warning to the United States about the consequences of prolonged socialist policies and delayed gratification, according to an opinion piece in the New York Post.

The author contends that European societies have prioritized immediate gratification over future stability, leading to a quarter-century of fiscal deficits. France, for example, has maintained annual deficits for 52 consecutive years, resulting in a national debt approaching 120% of its GDP. This sustained deficit spending, facilitated by bond markets, has led to high public spending and significant interest payments, yet citizens report feeling increasingly strained.

The welfare systems in these nations are also cited as contributors to the decline. In France, the retirement age was lowered as life expectancy increased, and benefits for those not working have become more generous. Such policies, while politically expedient, are seen as unsustainable, with proposals to further reduce the retirement age potentially leading to national bankruptcy.

This pattern of what the author terms "delusional" policy-making is not confined to France. The United Kingdom is also described as being on a similar trajectory, with nearly four million people receiving incapacity benefits, often for conditions with ambiguous diagnoses. Critics point to a waste of human potential and a reluctance to tighten eligibility criteria for claimants.

The article posits that discipline, a historical hallmark of success for both individuals and societies, has been eroded by "decadence, denial and creeping socialism." This critique extends beyond current left-leaning governments to include conservative administrations in the UK, such as those led by David Cameron, Boris Johnson, and Rishi Sunak, which are accused of overseeing significant increases in government spending, regulation, and taxation.

As cracks appeared in European societies, uncontrolled immigration became a perceived solution for some nations. Germany's acceptance of a million refugees in 2015 and the UK's high intake of visa holders between 2020 and 2023 are highlighted. The author suggests these policies were driven by expediency, aiming to delay reckoning with cheap labor and increased tax revenues, a strategy dubbed "human quantitative easing." However, this approach allegedly lacked plans for cultural assimilation, infrastructure development, or consideration of long-term pension liabilities.

The cumulative effects of these policies are evident in the rising debt-to-GDP ratios, with the UK projected to reach 300% by 2075, a path also followed by France. The recent riots across Europe are presented as a consequence of these systemic issues, a populace reacting against a political establishment that avoided addressing fundamental problems.

France's attempt to raise the retirement age in 2023, a move deemed necessary by the author, was met with widespread condemnation, illustrating a growing sense of entitlement and a declining willingness to make necessary sacrifices.

The author draws a parallel to historical instances of civilizational decline, citing Sir John Grubb's observation of the 9th-century Abbasid Caliphate demanding a shorter work week as bankruptcy loomed.

Ultimately, the piece argues that European experience demonstrates the failure of socialism, unchecked debt, dependency, and short-term thinking. It warns that the U.S. could face similar stagnation if policies mirroring those in Europe were adopted, particularly by progressive movements. However, the author also notes that permanent deficits and over-regulation have become common practice, even among Republicans, raising concerns that the U.S. is following a similar path. The article concludes with a cautionary note: as the U.S. power potentially wanes, other more disciplined societies may emerge to challenge its position.