Europe must prepare for a difficult winter with potential energy shortages to maintain sustained pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Jonathan Powell, the UK Prime Minister's top security adviser. Speaking at the Yalta European Strategy forum, Powell stated that current pressure on Putin is effective and must be sustained, warning against easing support for Ukraine.

"We have to keep the economic, military, political and diplomatic support going for Ukraine," Powell said. "What we don't want to do at this stage is take our foot off the gas - and literally, gas could be the problem as we come into the winter, where the EU is going to have real problems of shortage, and we cannot turn that into an advantage for Putin."

Powell acknowledged that the current situation in Ukraine feels challenging, citing Russian drone attacks, strikes on Ukrainian businesses, a lack of advanced air defense systems, and the Ukrainian government's budget deficit. However, he expressed optimism, highlighting a perceived shift in former US President Donald Trump's stance.

"He sees that Ukraine is doing better, and therefore he is not leaning in the direction of Putin in the way that he was previously," Powell observed, calling this a significant progress in negotiations a key asset. He also noted that Russia is no longer asserting a past US agreement from a 2023 summit in Alaska regarding Ukrainian territorial concessions and NATO membership.

"The so-called Anchorage compromise is firmly dead," Powell declared. "It's finished. I think that's a really important reason to be positive, because now we can look for serious ways of getting to a negotiated settlement, rather than waiting for the Ukrainian people to hand over territory the Russians have not been able to conquer."

Powell pointed to successes such as Ukrainian commanders holding the front lines, Russia exceeding 1.5 million casualties since 2022, Ukraine's deep strikes into Russian territory, and Europe's continued solidarity. He reiterated that the strategy aims to apply sufficient pressure to encourage Putin toward negotiations, viewing reported escalations as a sign of the strategy's effectiveness.

While Putin has expressed confidence in Russia's prospects, Ukrainian authorities have initiated evacuations in key eastern cities like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, areas central to Russia's objectives in the Donbas region. Powell described predicting the war's end as a "mug's game" but stressed Europe's need to be prepared for a settlement, anticipating that Putin may eventually be ready for serious negotiations.

Drawing on his experience negotiating the Good Friday Agreement, Powell underscored the importance of maintaining communication channels with Putin and Russian officials to avoid miscalculation. "That's why I think it's important the CIA went to Moscow as well. I think we need to keep talking," he stated, advocating for dialogue even with adversaries.

Powell framed the conflict not as a territorial dispute but as a fight for Ukraine's independence. He suggested that the ultimate outcome for Putin is less about incremental territorial gains or losses and more about the existence of a free, independent, and European Ukraine, which he believes will be noticed by people within Russia.