Ethiopia Peace Deal Shattered as Renewed Fighting Erupts in Tigray

Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has effectively shattered a peace pact that concluded a devastating two-year war in 2022, as rebel forces mobilize for an armed struggle aimed at removing the federal prime minister. The conflict pits Ethiopian federal troops against fighters loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a political group in the northern Tigray region.

The TPLF and Ethiopian federal troops engaged in warfare from November 2020 to November 2022, culminating in a peace deal signed in Pretoria, South Africa. During that conflict, Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian forces against the TPLF. Ghent University researchers estimated the civilian death toll from violence, famine, and the collapse of health services at 500,000.

Following the Pretoria peace deal, a caretaker administration perceived as loyal to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was installed in Mekelle, the Tigray capital. However, tensions persisted, with the TPLF seeking to regain political control.

This latest escalation sees the TPLF appearing to have mobilized broadly, uniting former adversaries with the stated goal of removing Abiy from power in the federal capital, Addis Ababa. On Sunday, the TPLF and six other opposition groups announced the formation of an alliance to overthrow Abiy's Prosperity Party, which secured reelection in June polls boycotted by major opposition parties.

Both sides have accused each other of bad faith, and many civilians in Tigray had anticipated a return to armed hostilities for months. In May, the TPLF ousted regional leader Tadesse Werede, who reported to Abiy, and appointed a new council led by TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael.

Ethiopian federal authorities accused the TPLF of attempting to forge an alliance with neighboring Eritrea to destabilize the country. Conversely, the TPLF accused Ethiopian authorities of conducting drone attacks in Tigray. Eritrea expressed alarm over Abiy's repeated assertions of his desire for sovereign access to the Red Sea via Eritrean territory. The TPLF also voiced concerns about Abiy's push for sovereign access to the Eritrean seaport of Assab, which has reignited regional tensions.

Both parties deny initiating the current hostilities, with fighting concentrated in remote, mountainous areas. On Wednesday, TPLF fighters seized the airport in Mekelle from federal police, leading Ethiopian Airlines to cancel flights to the city and surrounding region.

The Ethiopian News Agency described the TPLF as a “Trojan horse,” stating that the group’s “repeated attempts to incite conflict” challenge the government’s “patience, concessions and magnanimity.”

The alliance formed by the TPLF and other opposition groups is named the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. It includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.

This coalition, uniting previously opposed groups, could increase pressure on Abiy, according to Kjetil Tronvoll, an academic analyst of Ethiopia at Oslo New University College. He noted that the current situation differs significantly from the 2020-2022 war, with Fano now an ally and Eritrea a potential backer, with supply lines secured through Eritrea.

The African Union and the regional bloc IGAD have called for de-escalation. U.S. Ambassador Ervin J. Massinga expressed disappointment with the TPLF’s “poor decision to launch a large-scale offensive,” stating that an “unwinnable fight” serves no purpose for the people and advising other armed groups to avoid similar actions. A TPLF official, Amanuel Assefa, called the statement unfair.

Prime Minister Abiy, who came to power in 2018, has been lauded for ambitious infrastructure projects and for improving relations with Eritrea, an effort that contributed to his 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. However, critics now view him as a provocateur whose actions risk escalating conflict in the Horn of Africa. His attempts to negotiate sea access via Somaliland have also angered Somalia.