The leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin may be facing increasing internal pressure, according to Estonia's foreign intelligence chief, even as Moscow escalates aggression against NATO countries. Kaupo Rosin, Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), stated that while a widespread popular uprising is unlikely, dissenting voices within Russia are growing.
"There are certainly voices which express that he should keep going, but I think the voices which, let’s say, urge [him] to maybe reconsider the situation are becoming stronger," Rosin told The Telegraph, referring to internal tensions within Russia. He characterized Russia's current position as "very bad," a sentiment he believes is shared by many within the country.
Rosin suggested that Putin's allies might eventually conclude that the nation would be better off without him. Putin has been in power since 2000, ruling as a strongman figure. The current situation is exacerbated by ongoing, crippling sanctions and attacks on Russian territory from Ukraine, contributing to inflation and economic struggles.
"We see that overall unhappiness levels with this war are increasing in all echelons of society, starting from normal people and throughout, up to the oligarchs," Rosin said. "More and more people do not want this war."
Intensified Gray-Zone Attacks
Concurrently, NATO countries bordering Russia have reported a rise in what are described as "gray-zone" attacks originating from Moscow. These incidents, which have become more frequent since April, include cyberattacks, drone incursions, and more. Examples include a suspected Russian drone being shot down over Romania and the discovery of explosive-laden drones near a German airport.
U.S. intelligence agencies believe Russia may increase its incursions into NATO territories as a means to test the alliance's resolve. CIA Director John Ratcliffe recently made a visit to Moscow to confer with his Russian counterparts, a meeting that has been the subject of various interpretations, with some speculating it was to warn Moscow against such provocations.
These "gray-zone" activities coincide with Russia's stalled progress in the war in Ukraine, where gains have been minimal and the Kremlin has faced significant challenges, including drone strikes on sensitive domestic targets.
Potential for Rapid Change
Rosin cautioned that any significant shift in Russia's internal dynamics could occur abruptly. "I would say, if something changes in Russia, then it will happen in a very rapid manner and we will all be surprised. It will be an overnight thing, if it ever happens," he stated.
The notes also reference a past internal threat to the Kremlin: the June 2023 revolt by the Wagner Group, a private military company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. The mercenaries marched towards Moscow before the rebellion was quelled. Prigozhin later died in a plane crash under circumstances widely speculated to involve foul play.
Estonia, a Baltic nation that was formerly part of the Soviet Union, shares a border with Russia and has long been a close observer of the Kremlin's actions.