Vladimir Putin's hold on power in Russia may be endangered, according to the Director General of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), Kaupo Rosin. Rosin indicated that while a widespread public uprising is improbable, internal pressures on the Russian leader are mounting.
"There are certainly voices which express that he should keep going, but I think the voices which, let’s say, urge [him] to maybe reconsider the situation are becoming stronger," Rosin told The Telegraph, referencing the "internal tension" within Russia.
Estonia, a NATO member bordering Russia, has observed an increase in Moscow's aggressive actions toward neighboring NATO countries in recent months. These actions, described as "gray-zone" attacks, have included cyberattacks and drone intrusions, which have reportedly been increasing in frequency since April. Examples include a suspected Russian drone shot down over Romania and the discovery of explosive-laden drones near a German airport.
These provocations coincide with Russia's stalled progress in the war in Ukraine and internal economic challenges, including high inflation and the impact of international sanctions. Rosin noted that dissatisfaction with the war is growing across all levels of Russian society, from ordinary citizens to oligarchs.
"We see that overall unhappiness levels with this war are increasing in all echelons of society, starting from normal people and throughout, up to the oligarchs," Rosin said. "More and more people do not want this war."
Intelligence assessments suggest that Russia may escalate incursions into NATO territories as a means of testing the alliance's resolve. The CIA Director's recent visit to Moscow has been subject to various interpretations, with some speculating it was to caution Russia against such actions.
Rosin cautioned that any significant shift in Russia's internal dynamics could occur unexpectedly. "If something changes in Russia, then it will happen in a very rapid manner and we will all be surprised. It will be an overnight thing, if it ever happens," he stated.
The report recalled the Wagner Group's brief armed revolt led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who later died in a suspicious plane crash. The incident highlighted potential internal vulnerabilities within Russia, although the rebellion was suppressed.
"I think, objectively, Russia is in a very bad place at the moment, and many people understand this in Russia," Rosin assessed. He suggested that Putin's allies might eventually conclude that the country would be better off without him, given his long tenure since 2000.