Amidst Ukraine's escalating long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, which have triggered the nation's most severe fuel crisis in decades, senior Estonian officials suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his family might be considering fleeing the country. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated in an interview with RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND) that an increasing number of Russian oligarchs are questioning Putin's war strategy.
"Many who spoke of victory a year ago no longer believe it," Tsahkna commented, noting that the conflict is now being felt more directly by Russian citizens. "By now, every Russian feels that this war isn't happening somewhere far away, but has reached their own country."
Ukraine's intensified drone campaign has targeted Russian oil refineries and tankers at an unprecedented rate. Data from Rochan Consulting indicates that since the beginning of 2026, Russian refineries have been hit at least 194 times, an 11-fold increase compared to the same period the previous year. These strikes have led to strict fuel sales limits in more than half of Russia's regions, with reports of residents experiencing long queues and altercations at petrol stations.
One such incident occurred in Penza, where drivers reportedly engaged in a brawl over queue-jumping. In Moscow, a woman claimed her tires were slashed by a man who threatened her with a knife, believing she was cutting in line at a petrol station. The growing tension highlights the economic impact of the precision Ukrainian strikes on key oil facilities.
In a significant development on July 12, Ukraine claimed to have attacked 15 ships, primarily tankers involved in Russia's shadow fleet, in the Sea of Azov. This brought the total number of attacked vessels to over 100 in the preceding eight days, further constricting supplies to annexed Crimea. Ukrainian drones also struck the Kavkaz oil and passenger port, which connects Russia to the Black Sea peninsula.
These actions come as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a concerted push this summer to compel Russia to end its war. Zelensky stated that his military is conducting a "40-day influence operation" with long-range strike units to pressure Putin into negotiations. Ukraine has vowed to cease these strikes if Putin halts his "years-long war of aggression."
On Monday, the Mikhailovskaya oil depot in Stavropol was hit, causing a significant fireball and towering flames that further depleted Russian supplies. Dozens of key refineries and oil storage sites have been rendered inoperable.
In response to the strikes, Russian state media personalities have called for harsh retaliatory measures against Ukraine. Vladimir Solovyov, a prominent Kremlin supporter, advocated for destroying all ships connected to Ukraine and utilizing submarines for this purpose.
Meanwhile, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) reported thwarting several large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks against two military air bases, Shagol and Ukrainka, located in the Ural Mountains and the far east of Russia, respectively. The FSB stated that the perpetrators of these attempted attacks had been apprehended. This operation reportedly involved using balloons and drones to transport containers of explosives into Russia's Bryansk region for onward delivery to the targets. The FSB suggested that this resembled a 2025 attack on Russian military air bases, which reportedly destroyed approximately 10 Russian aircraft, according to the United States. Despite these thwarted attempts, Tsahkna cautioned that Russia remains a dangerous country and that provocations are always possible, though he deemed a large-scale invasion of Poland or the Baltic states unlikely in the coming weeks due to Russia's current resource limitations.