As President Donald Trump heads to Ankara for an upcoming NATO summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remains a central figure in alliance politics. Trump has described Erdoğan as "a friend" and "a respected leader," a relationship that could influence defense discussions, including Turkey's ongoing efforts to deepen military cooperation with the U.S.
Erdoğan's position within NATO has become increasingly significant amid the war in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and the growing strategic importance of the Black Sea. Once viewed as a difficult ally after receiving the Russian S-400 missile defense system in 2019, Turkey is now a crucial partner for the alliance.
Experts suggest that Erdoğan's political career is defined by reinvention, adapting his ideology to maintain power. Gönül Tol, founding director of the Middle East Institute's Turkey Program, notes that Erdoğan is "very pragmatic, first and foremost a populist," and not driven by a fixed ideology.
Political Evolution
Erdoğan's political journey began in Turkey's Islamist movement, stemming from his education at an Imam Hatip religious school. He entered politics with National Outlook, a right-wing Islamist movement, and later became mayor of Istanbul as a member of the Welfare Party. His first significant political reinvention occurred when he co-founded the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2001. He abandoned the Islamist label, presenting himself as a "conservative democrat" committed to economic reform and closer ties with Europe. This shift was instrumental in his and the AKP's rise to power in 2002, promising democratic reforms and modernization.
Following the Arab Spring in 2011, Erdoğan pivoted again, increasingly aligning himself with political Islam and supporting Islamist movements abroad while emphasizing Turkey's conservative religious identity domestically. This period also saw a more critical stance towards the West, including accusations against the U.S.-led coalition in Syria and sharp criticism of Israel. However, Tol points out that anti-Israel sentiment is widespread in Turkey and that Erdoğan's foreign policy reflects political calculation more than religious doctrine.
As Turkey's economy faced challenges and regional ambitions shifted, Erdoğan embraced Turkish nationalism. He formed alliances with nationalist parties and cultivated an image as a strong leader capable of restoring Turkey's historical influence. Supporters credit him with transforming Turkey into a regional power and restoring dignity to conservative religious citizens. Critics, however, argue that this era has seen a decline in Turkey's democratic institutions, with authorities using legal means to sideline political opponents.
Current NATO Role and U.S. Relations
Today, Erdoğan is navigating another political transformation, working to repair relations with the United States and Europe after years of anti-Western rhetoric. Disputes over the S-400 purchase, which led to U.S. sanctions and Turkey's expulsion from the F-35 fighter jet program, remain a significant issue. Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey explained that integrating the S-400 with the F-35 is technically complex, potentially exposing sensitive U.S. technology.
Despite these challenges, Turkey's strategic value to NATO has surged. The country controls vital straits, possesses NATO's second-largest military, and plays a critical role in the Black Sea. Jeffrey highlighted Turkey's essential contribution to Ukraine's defense, citing its enforcement of the Montreux Convention, provision of drones, and mediation efforts between Kyiv and Moscow. "You can't contain Russia in the Black Sea without Turkey," he stated.
Tol views Erdoğan's current engagement with NATO as another example of his adaptability. "There was a time when he was very anti-Western, very critical of NATO, very critical of the United States," she said. "And now look at him."
Domestic Impact and Criticism
Human Rights Watch and Freedom House have documented an increase in authoritarianism under Erdoğan, with power consolidated through constitutional changes and the imprisonment of opponents, journalists, and civil society figures. Turkey's prisons are operating significantly over capacity. While NATO allies have become more reserved in their criticism of Turkey's human rights record as its strategic importance has risen, some former U.S. officials believe it remains important to publicly address the "degradation of democratic institutions in Turkey."
According to Tol, Erdoğan's domestic policies are unified by a single principle: "Everything is designed to keep him in power. Beyond that, I don't see a binding ideology that brings together all his policies."
As Trump prepares for discussions with Erdoğan, understanding this pragmatic and adaptable leadership style is key to comprehending one of NATO's most influential figures.