Approximately 700 eligible offenders in England and Wales are scheduled for release on October 1 as part of a revised early prison release plan. The government's updated schedule indicates that about 2,550 individuals will have been released by the close of the year.
The new plan, which has been officially signed into law, largely maintains the original timeline for offender releases, with adjustments including a one-month delay to the start date and the exclusion of specific offenses. Initially, offenders serving sentences of up to 19 months were slated for eligibility from September 2, after serving one-third of their sentence.
In response to concerns from victims, the government has excluded rape, grooming, and child sex offenses from the revised scheme. Prisoners will now qualify for earlier release starting October 1, with officials estimating around 700 individuals will be released on that day.
A second group of approximately 650 prisoners, who have been serving sentences between 19 months and two years and five months, will be released from October 13. This revised timeline provides prison and probation services less than two weeks to prepare for this second tranche, a reduction from the nearly six weeks allocated under the original plan.
The remaining releases will be phased in over subsequent months. By November 10, an estimated 650 offenders serving sentences up to three years and two months are expected to be released. Further releases are scheduled for December 8 (550 offenders, sentences up to four years and three months), January 12, 2027 (600 offenders, sentences up to five years and nine months), February 9, 2027 (500 offenders, sentences up to seven years and six months), March 9, 2027 (200 offenders, sentences up to nine years), April 13, 2027 (200 offenders, sentences up to 10 years), May 11, 2027 (250 offenders, sentences up to 12 years), and June 9, 2027 (250 offenders, sentences exceeding 12 years).
Prisons in England and Wales are currently operating at 97% capacity, with a limited number of available spaces. The Ministry of Justice figures indicate that the male prison estate has its lowest number of free spaces this year, with approximately 1,500 vacancies. The offenders serving longer sentences, whose release is scheduled later in the new plan, include more dangerous criminals who would have historically served two-thirds of their sentence in custody.