Deaths have begun to outnumber births annually in England and Wales, a demographic milestone researchers have dubbed ‘Death Day,’ according to recent analysis. Projections indicate this trend will continue each year from 2026 onwards, signaling a significant shift in the region's demographic landscape.
The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) analysis of official projections suggests the threshold where deaths started to exceed births was crossed on July 1. This marks the beginning of what is described as a ‘new demographic era’ for Britain, with researchers anticipating 450,000 more deaths than births over the next decade.
This shift is primarily attributed to a declining birthrate, with the fertility rate falling to a record low of 1.39 children per woman last year. This figure is substantially below the 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain a stable population without migration. Factors contributing to the lower birthrate include couples delaying parenthood due to the cost of housing and childcare, women prioritizing careers, and a general trend towards smaller families.
The CSJ has warned that this declining birthrate could lead to a significant increase in government spending and public debt, potentially reaching 270 percent of GDP to support an aging population. The think tank also suggested that maintaining the current ratio of workers to pensioners might necessitate raising the state pension age to 75 for those currently aged eight and under.
Edward Davies, research director at the CSJ, characterized the milestone as ‘worrying’ and reflective of ‘decades of failure to adequately support family life.’ He called for a political focus on family, marriage, and financial support for couples wishing to have children.
While deaths have historically outnumbered births in a few isolated years, such as 1976, 2020, and 2023, the current projections indicate a permanent shift. For many years, population growth was sustained by immigration, which offset the declining birthrate. Official figures show that the proportion of babies born in the UK to foreign-born parents has increased, with four in ten babies born last year having at least one parent born outside the UK.
Despite regional variations, with some areas like the West Midlands and London seeing birth increases while others like the North East and South West experienced declines, the national trend points towards a growing population driven solely by migration until the mid-2050s. This is a revision from earlier estimates that predicted population growth until 2096. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) had previously revised down population growth estimates due to declining birthrates and a fall in net migration following a peak in 2023.