England and Wales have entered a new demographic era, with deaths now projected to outnumber births annually starting from July 1, 2026, a milestone dubbed ‘Death Day’. This shift, driven by a collapsing birthrate, means that more funerals than christenings are expected to take place each year.
New analysis by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), based on official projections, suggests that deaths have begun to exceed births, marking a significant demographic turning point. Over the next decade, the deficit is anticipated to reach 450,000 more deaths than births. This trend follows a downward revision of population growth estimates by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which cited declining birthrates and a fall in net migration as key factors.
The fertility rate, defined as the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, has been steadily decreasing since 2012, reaching a record low of 1.39 children per woman last year. This rate is considerably below the 2.1 children per woman required to maintain a stable population without immigration.
Several factors are believed to contribute to the declining birthrate, including couples delaying parenthood due to the costs associated with housing and childcare, an increased emphasis on career progression for women, and a general trend towards smaller family sizes.
The CSJ has warned that the sustained drop in birthrates could lead to a substantial increase in government spending to support an aging population, with public debt potentially rising to 270 percent of GDP. The think tank also suggested that if current worker-to-pensioner ratios are to be maintained, individuals currently aged 8 or younger might not retire until they are 75.
Edward Davies, research director at the CSJ, described the demographic shift as a 'worrying milestone' that highlights 'decades of failure to adequately support family life.' He called for a political focus on family, marriage, and making it more feasible for couples to afford children.
Historically, deaths have outnumbered births in England and Wales only in specific years, such as 1976, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and in 2023. However, the current projections indicate this will become the norm annually from 2026 onwards. While declining birth rates have been partially offset in recent years by record levels of immigration, which has sustained population growth, this pattern is expected to change.
Official figures show that approximately 40 percent of babies born last year had at least one parent who was born outside the UK. Despite some regional variations, with areas like the West Midlands and London seeing birth increases, the overall trend points towards a national decline. Population growth is now expected to be driven entirely by migration, with the population projected to reach 71 million by 2034. However, the population itself is now forecast to begin decreasing in the mid-2050s, a shift from earlier predictions of continuous growth until 2096. These revised population forecasts reflect the impact of both the falling birth rate and a decrease in net migration following a peak in 2023.