Average household energy bills are projected to remain significantly high until the end of 2030, with potential increases of up to 13 percent compared to late 2025 levels if government support measures are not continued, according to EDF Energy. The supplier estimates that standard variable tariff bills could reach £1,790 annually by 2030 without such aid.
EDF's analysis indicates that current government interventions, including a reduction in the VAT for domestic electricity bills to zero percent and the transfer of a significant portion of renewable obligation costs to general taxation, have provided crucial relief. However, it remains uncertain whether these measures will be extended by the current government. Extending both measures is estimated to cost the public purse £3.5 billion in 2030. If they are continued, EDF suggests that bills could decrease by approximately £90 per year by 2030.
The current VAT cut is funded only until April of the following year, and while a commitment was made to place the renewable obligation cost reduction on a permanent legal footing, the new government's specific intentions are unclear. Experts at EDF noted that bills are expected to be 'stubbornly high' at the decade's close.
Beyond wholesale price fluctuations, other cost factors continue to exert pressure on consumer bills. These include the expenses associated with maintaining and investing in energy networks, as well as policy-related costs and the growing burden of energy debt. EDF states that increases in these non-energy costs are anticipated to offset potential reductions in wholesale prices.
Meanwhile, the energy price cap, which regulates the maximum charge for households on standard variable tariffs, is expected to rise by approximately 4 percent when Ofgem announces the rates for October onwards. This projected increase follows a more substantial 13 percent hike in July. Cornwall Insight, an energy consultancy, forecasts this latest adjustment, which will impact bills during the first half of winter. The current cap stands at £1,663 per year for a typical dual-fuel household in England, Scotland, and Wales paying by direct debit.
Energy debt is a growing concern, with estimates suggesting it could reach £7 billion by the end of the year, up from an estimated £6 billion in the first half of 2026. EDF highlights that increased transparency regarding future bill projections and investment needs is a necessary first step for any government serious about addressing energy costs. The supplier also advocates for faster electrification as the most viable long-term solution for more affordable energy bills, while emphasizing the need for continued support for vulnerable households.