Energy bills are likely to remain "stubbornly high" through the end of the decade, with average dual fuel bills potentially reaching £1,790 annually by 2030 if current government support is not maintained, according to EDF Energy. The supplier warned that without continued intervention, household bills in 2030 could be approximately 13 percent higher than in the final quarter of 2025.
EDF's analysis suggests that extending current measures, such as the reduced VAT on domestic electricity bills and the shift of renewable obligation costs into general taxation, would be crucial. The temporary VAT cut is currently funded only until April, and while a commitment exists to place the renewable obligation cost reduction on a more permanent legal basis, the new government's intentions remain unclear. Maintaining these measures would cost the public purse an estimated £3.5 billion in 2030. If these relief measures are extended, EDF projects that energy bills could decrease by around £90 per year by 2030.
Even as wholesale energy prices have fallen from recent crisis peaks, other costs are contributing to sustained high bills. These include investments in energy networks, policy-related costs, and the escalating cost of energy debt accumulated by households. EDF noted that increases in these "non-energy costs" are expected to counterbalance potential reductions elsewhere.
The ongoing pressure on household finances is also reflected in rising energy debt. Industry body Energy UK estimates that domestic customer debt has already reached approximately £6 billion in the first half of 2026 and is on course to surge to £7 billion by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the energy price cap, which limits the maximum charge for customers on standard variable tariffs, is expected to rise. Cornwall Insight forecasts a 4 percent increase in the cap, set by regulator Ofgem, which will apply to bills in the early part of the coming winter. This follows a sharper 13 percent increase implemented in July. The current price cap stands at £1,663 per year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit.
EDF emphasized that greater transparency regarding future bill trajectories and investment needs is a necessary first step for any government serious about tackling energy costs. The supplier also reiterated that faster electrification of the UK's energy system represents the most credible long-term solution for more affordable bills, while advocating for continued support for those most in need in the interim.