Scientists seeking to sell their findings or influence public policy have eroded Americans' trust in science, according to Stuart Firestein, a professor of neurobiology at Columbia University. He proposes that embracing uncertainty, rather than striving for absolute certainty, is the key to restoring that confidence.
Firestein, author of "It Could Be Otherwise: Science at the Edge of Uncertainty," suggests that the public's perception of science as a provider of definitive answers has led to unrealistic expectations. When these expectations are not met, it contributes to mistrust. He argues that certain experts, driven by the desire to prove theories or profit, have misled the public into believing science offers final solutions.
"Trust the science," some may insist, but Firestein contends this phrase can be used to push policy positions as if all questions are settled. Instead, he advocates for a philosophy where scientists demonstrate that an "age of optimistic uncertainty" is possible.
This philosophy does not imply that truth is subjective, but rather that multiple valid answers can exist for most problems. This abundance, Firestein suggests, signifies a flourishing of knowledge and discovery.
He illustrates this with the example of blood-pressure medication. The complexity of blood pressure regulation has led to the development of at least nine different types of medication, each working in distinct ways. Doctors cannot guarantee a specific treatment will work for every patient; they operate with probabilities. Firestein points out that claiming absolute certainty for any one treatment is misleading and bound to disappoint patients for whom it is ineffective.
However, he emphasizes that the existence of nine distinct treatment options, despite incomplete understanding of blood pressure regulation, is a testament to scientists who embrace uncertainty. Their efforts, driven by this approach, have significantly extended the healthy lives of millions.
Firestein posits that uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of the universe, governed by randomness and probability. While this may seem unsettling, he contrasts it with a deterministic universe where everything is predetermined. Randomness, and the uncertainty it brings, is presented as a powerful force that enables new insights into complex systems, from biology to cosmology.
Niels Bohr, a pioneer of quantum mechanics, is cited for his idea that "the opposite of a fact is a falsehood. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." This concept, Firestein explains, suggests that multiple suitable answers can exist depending on the context or objective. Adopting an attitude of uncertainty allows for the consideration of multiple possibilities, fostering a sense of freedom and the belief that current conditions are not immutable.
This realization, Firestein notes, has been gradually internalized by scientists in recent generations and has fueled advances in fields like drug discovery, lasers, and GPS, as well as deepened understanding in cosmology, economics, and meteorology.
He argues that certainty, in its absolute form, might stifle creativity and imagination. "Unsettled science is not unsound science," Firestein asserts. "It is from uncertainty that discovery and progress are produced." Learning to navigate uncertainty, he concludes, is a vital lesson for both researchers and the general public, serving as a philosophical key to optimism.