Abdul El-Sayed's victory in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary may elevate Arab American voices within the Democratic Party, particularly as Michigan is slated for an early spot in the 2028 presidential nominating calendar. The state, home to nearly 300,000 Arab Americans, could be positioned after South Carolina and Nevada, ahead of New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, according to a calendar tentatively approved by Democratic National Committee leaders.
This development occurs as the Middle East and the U.S. relationship with Israel continue to be central topics of discussion within the Democratic Party. El-Sayed, who campaigned on a platform of ending U.S. aid to Israel, could become a significant voice for presidential contenders seeking support in 2028 if he wins the general election in the battleground state. His primary win has already garnered endorsements from prominent Democrats, including former Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg rallying with him recently.
Shifting Democratic Views on Israel
While Michigan held an early position in the 2024 presidential primaries, the political landscape has evolved considerably since then. Frustration over the Biden administration's handling of the Israel-Hamas war fueled the "Uncommitted" protest movement originating in Michigan during the last cycle. The 2028 cycle is anticipated to be highly competitive, with several Democrats reportedly considering presidential bids.
"What we expect in 2028 is that all these candidates recognize that without our community, there's no pathway to the White House," said Basim Elkarra, executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations' political arm, emphasizing that Michigan's early calendar placement will ensure the community is taken more seriously.
Potential presidential contenders are increasingly articulating their stances on U.S. policy toward Israel. Rahm Emanuel, former chief of staff to President Barack Obama, has recently voiced criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and argued for an end to unconditional U.S. support for Israel. "This is an issue that candidates are going to have to figure out not before Michigan, but before South Carolina," stated James Zogby, a member of the DNC's Middle East working group. "They're going to have to figure it out before they even get in the mix."
A July AP-NORC poll indicates a shift in public opinion, with 40% of Americans now believing the U.S. is too supportive of Israel, a figure consistent with early 2024 but showing an increase in concern among Democrats. A majority of Democrats, 58%, now hold this view, up from 45% two years prior. This shift is reflected in recent congressional actions, where 40 out of 47 House Democrats voted to advance an independent senator's resolution blocking military sales to Israel in April, and nearly half of House Democrats supported a measure to eliminate U.S. aid to Israel in July. Although both measures failed, they signify a departure from the party's previous near-unanimous support for Israel.
In 2024, the "Uncommitted" movement advocated for a speaking slot for Georgia State Rep. Ruwa Romman at the Democratic National Convention, a request that was ultimately denied despite support from figures like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Romman noted that while Gaza might not be a top issue for most voters, it has become a measure of a candidate's willingness to stand against special interests and act in constituents' best interests.
Testing Candidates' Positions
Former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison suggested that the Michigan primary will serve as a test for candidates' positions against the electorate. "I don't think our candidates ignore voters," Harrison said. "The question is whether or not they just agree with the voter sentiment in those particular issues. … You'll have a number of diverse points of views, and they will get pressure tested by the voters."
Curtis Hertel, Michigan Democratic Party state chair, highlighted the state's demographic diversity, including its Black population in Detroit, a significant Latino community, and high union density, arguing that candidates must appeal to all these groups. He cautioned against attributing the party's 2024 loss in Michigan to a single issue, stating, "If you look at the last election in Michigan, we bled in 79 out of 83 counties, and it wasn't any one place you can point to and say … that was the one issue that happened. And that's why we're rebuilding across the state."
Andrew Lachman, a DNC member and former president of California Jewish Democrats, expressed optimism that a transformative leader could bridge communities, similar to the example set by President Obama, and find common ground. "If we can find a transformative leader, the way we found one with President Obama, for instance -- it's a potential opportunity to fine-tune messaging and find ways where there could be common ground."