As voters prepare to head to the polls, eight U.S. Senate races remain too close for election forecasters to reach a consensus, according to a TIME analysis. These pivotal contests could decide which party ultimately controls the upper chamber of Congress.
The analysis examined race ratings from 10 reputable election forecasters: Cook Political Report (CPR), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), FiftyPlusOne (FPO), Fox News Power Rankings (FNPR), Inside Elections (IE), Race to the WH (RWH), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (SCB), Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR Deluxe model (SB), Split Ticket (ST), and The Economist (TE). For this analysis, "uncertain" ratings from TE were treated as equivalent to a toss-up.
Democrats would need to win at least four of these eight races to secure a Senate majority, assuming other expected outcomes materialize.
In Alaska, four forecasters rate the race between Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan as leaning Democratic, while the remaining six consider it a toss-up. Iowa presents a similar split, with forecasters disagreeing on the outcome between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek. RWH rates it as Tilt Democratic, SCB leans Republican, and TE rates it Likely Republican, with the other seven forecasters calling it a toss-up.
Kansas features a challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton to Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall. Four forecasters—FPO, SCB, SB, and ST—suggest the race leans Democratic, while the other six view it as a toss-up. In Maine, seven forecasters favor Democrat Troy Jackson over Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, rating the race either Lean or Likely Democratic, though CPR, IE, and FNPR classify it as a toss-up.
Michigan's race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers shows divergence, with only FNPR calling it a toss-up. IE rates it as tilting Democratic, CPR and SCB lean Democratic, and the rest deem it Likely Democratic. In Ohio, where Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted, seven forecasters favor Brown, rating the race as Tilt or Lean Democratic, while CPR, DDHQ, and TE consider it a toss-up.
Texas presents another divided forecast, with IE rating the contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton as Tilt Democratic. DDHQ, FPO, RWH, and SCB say it leans Democratic, and SB and ST rate it Likely Democratic. CPR, FNPR, and TE, however, call it a toss-up.
Of the remaining 27 Senate races, 13 are unanimously rated in favor of Democrats. Ten of these are considered safely or solidly Democratic by all forecasters: John Hickenlooper in Colorado, Chris Coons in Delaware, Juliana Stratton in Illinois, Ed Markey in Massachusetts, Cory Booker in New Jersey, Ben Ray Luján in New Mexico, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Jack Reed in Rhode Island, and Mark Warner in Virginia. Four other Democratic incumbents—Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, Chris Pappas in New Hampshire, and Roy Cooper in North Carolina—are also unanimously favored, though not all rate their races as safe or solid.
The other 14 races are unanimously favored by forecasters for Republicans. Seven of these are rated safely or solidly Republican by all 10 forecasters: Barry Moore in Alabama, Tom Cotton in Arkansas, Jim Risch in Idaho, Kevin Hern in Oklahoma, Bill Hagerty in Tennessee, Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia, and Harriet Hageman in Wyoming. In seven additional races, all 10 forecasters favor the Republican candidate—Ashley Moody in Florida, Andy Barr in Kentucky, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Kurt Alme in Montana, Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, and Mike Rounds in South Dakota—though not all deem these contests safe or solid.
The ratings reflect the forecasters' assessments as of 7 a.m. ET on November 3. These ratings are based on polling data and fundamental assumptions but do not guarantee election outcomes.