An analysis of early voting data in Texas and Georgia, conducted with less than a week remaining until the midterm elections, indicates increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters. This trend is particularly noticeable among individuals who do not regularly vote, a demographic showing higher participation for Democrats compared to previous cycles, according to ABC News.
More than 39 million Americans had cast early ballots nationwide as of Wednesday afternoon. The analysis suggests that while a significant portion of the early vote comes from regular voters, less frequent voters who are participating early appear to be more inclined to support Democratic candidates. The data, derived from voter records and predictive modeling, does not reveal individual voting choices but estimates party preference based on factors such as primary turnout.
Texas Early Vote
In Texas, over 5 million voters had cast early ballots as of Wednesday, representing more than 20% of the state's registered voters. Despite Democrats not having won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, the early vote data shows a shift. As of Monday, 51% of the early vote was from voters modeled as likely to support Democrats, compared to 45% for Republicans. This marks a significant swing for Democrats compared to 2022, when they trailed Republicans by approximately 8 percentage points by the end of early voting.
The analysis also highlights a higher proportion of regular voters in the current early vote compared to 2022 and 2024. However, this reflects a decrease in less-regular voters rather than an increase in habitual ones. Regular voters, defined as those who voted in the last four federal elections, constitute 60% of the early vote, up from 47% in 2024 and 44% in 2022.
Crucially, Democrats are seeing a substantial increase in turnout among less frequent voters who are modeled as likely to prefer the party. Among voters who did not cast a ballot in any of the last four federal elections but have voted early in Texas, 64% are now modeled as likely Democratic supporters, an increase from 50% in the 2022 early vote. Conversely, the proportion of these less-frequent voters modeled as Republican fell to 21% from 39% in 2022.
Georgia Early Vote
Georgia has seen more than 2.1 million early ballots cast as of Wednesday morning. The analysis indicates that 54% of the early vote in Georgia comes from voters modeled as likely to support Democrats, while 38% is from those modeled as likely to support Republicans.
Similar to Texas, habitual voters who have participated in the last four federal elections make up a larger share of Georgia's early vote this year. They accounted for 67% of the early vote as of Monday, compared to 55% at the same point in the 2022 midterm cycle.
Among voters who have not voted in the last four federal elections but have cast early ballots, 52% are modeled as likely Democratic voters in Georgia, compared to 51% at this stage in 2022. The proportion modeled as Republican voters in this demographic has decreased to 12% from 27% in 2022.
Early voting in both Texas and Georgia is scheduled to conclude on Friday.