Early Midterm Voting Suggests High Democratic Enthusiasm, Analysis Shows

With less than two weeks remaining until the 2026 midterm elections, early voting data suggests heightened Democratic enthusiasm in several key states, according to an analysis by ABC News. More than 18 million Americans had cast their ballots early by mail or in person as of Thursday morning.

Registered Democrats and voters identified as likely to support Democrats have cast a larger proportion of early votes across most states when compared to 2024 figures. This trend is evident in states like Georgia and Iowa, where the early vote share has become approximately 18 percentage points more Democratic this year. In Michigan, the share of early votes cast by Democrats and likely Democratic voters remains similar to 2024 levels.

This early voting pattern aligns with recent polling, which indicates Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found that 72% of Democratic voters expressed certainty about voting, compared to 65% of Republican voters. A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed that 36% of Democrats felt very enthusiastic about voting in the 2026 midterms, against 29% of Republicans.

However, the early vote numbers represent only a partial picture. They do not indicate turnout among low-propensity voters, who may cast their ballots later in the early voting period or on Election Day. Historically, Republicans have shown a stronger tendency to vote on Election Day, a pattern that has contributed to their victories in past elections.

In the 2024 election cycle, overall votes were relatively evenly distributed among early in-person, mail-in, and Election Day ballots. A Pew Research Center survey analyzing 2024 voting data indicated that Democrats held a 24-point advantage with absentee or mail ballots, while Republicans led by 14 points in early in-person voting and 16 points on Election Day. These estimates are consistent with actual vote totals from states that differentiate results by voting method.

Further analysis from the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll shows that likely voters planning to vote early or who have already done so favored Democrats by 26 points in congressional vote choice. Voters planning to vote early at a polling place or who have already done so showed a 14-point Democratic advantage. Those who have dropped off a ballot before Election Day supported Democrats by a 50-point margin. Conversely, voters intending to cast their ballot in person on Election Day favored Republicans by 11 points.

In Michigan, as of October 19, approximately 670,000 voters had cast early ballots. Among voters who participated in at least three of the four most recent general elections, about 58% identified as Democrats and 40% as Republicans. This composition is nearly identical to the 2024 figures for the same group.

Georgia had seen nearly 850,000 early votes cast by October 19. This year, a higher proportion of these early ballots (71%) came from the most consistent voters (those who voted in four out of the last four general elections), compared to 63% in 2024. While a smaller share of ballots are originating from low-propensity voters this year, a non-presidential election year, these voters still show a greater Democratic leaning compared to 2024.

The critical question for Georgia and other states will be the turnout of lower-propensity Republican voters. While securing early votes from party faithful is advantageous, the ultimate competitiveness of Republican candidates may hinge on whether these less frequent voters emerge to counterbalance the apparent enthusiasm among Democrats.