Drew Mestemaker Emerges as Top QB Prospect as Arch Manning's Stock Declines

NFL scouts are increasingly favoring Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker as the potential first quarterback to be selected in the upcoming NFL Draft, a shift driven by the struggles of Texas's Arch Manning. Mestemaker, a transfer from North Texas, has impressed scouts with his efficiency and statistics this season.

Mestemaker has completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 2,326 yards and 20 touchdowns, while throwing only six interceptions and being sacked eight times. In contrast, Manning has thrown seven interceptions and been sacked 19 times, with 1,507 passing yards. While Manning averages 215 passing yards per game for a 5-2 Texas team, Mestemaker is averaging 332 yards per game for an Oklahoma State offense ranked third nationally.

"Mestemaker seems like the only real choice at this point," one scout told ESPN's Pete Thamel. Another scout noted, "The size, the body type and arm strength are the things that stood out to me right away. He's got arm talent, power and accuracy."

This assessment marks a significant change from earlier in the season. In August, a poll of NFL scouts indicated Oregon's Dante Moore as the likely top quarterback prospect. However, Moore is now reportedly out for the season due to a concussion. Manning received seven votes in that earlier poll, while South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers and LSU's Sam Leavitt garnered two and one votes, respectively.

Mestemaker, relatively inexperienced, is projected to have 27 career starts by the end of 2026. He followed his college coach, Eric Morris, from North Texas to Oklahoma State, where he has maintained strong statistical performance despite facing tougher competition. His development as a runner has also been noted, with six carries for 109 yards and a touchdown against Oregon.

Other quarterbacks receiving consideration in Thamel's poll include Notre Dame's CJ Carr, Miami's Darian Mensah, and Moore. Scouts have expressed surprise at the fluidity of the quarterback class, which was initially anticipated to be as strong as the 1983 draft class, known for producing five first-round quarterbacks.

Brendan Sorsby, formerly of the University of Cincinnati, is also mentioned as a potential wildcard for the 2027 NFL Draft. Sorsby's attempt to enter the NFL's supplemental draft was unsuccessful after he admitted to gambling on college football, but he continues to train and remains a possibility for a first-round selection.

Both Manning and Mestemaker could opt to return to college in 2027, potentially making them favorites for the first overall pick in the 2028 draft.