DOJ Faces Legal Hurdles in Alaska Election Lawsuit Over 'Dan Sullivan' Ballot Confusion

The Department of Justice (DOJ) is encountering substantial legal obstacles in its effort to persuade a federal court in Alaska that confusion between two Senate candidates sharing the name Dan Sullivan could warrant delaying the certification of election results. The DOJ filed a federal lawsuit prior to the Oct. 22 election, seeking to postpone certification if incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan lost and votes cast for a candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan could have altered the outcome, pending an investigation into potential voter misidentification.

The controversy arises from the presence of two individuals named Dan Sullivan on Alaska's Senate ballots: the incumbent Republican senator and a retired school teacher. This situation has national implications as Republicans aim to defend their narrow majority in the Senate.

Reports from The New York Times suggest that the campaign of Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Alaska, allegedly worked with operatives to recruit another Dan Sullivan to run. The intent, according to the Times, was to create voter confusion that could divert support from the incumbent Republican senator. The Peltola campaign has denied any involvement in the second Sullivan's candidacy.

In response to the DOJ's lawsuit, Peltola's campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee filed a motion to dismiss, arguing that the federal law cited by the DOJ pertains to voter registration rather than candidate eligibility or ballot design. They have urged the court to resolve the matter before Election Day.

Conservatives have expressed concern that the similar names on the ballot could lead voters intending to reelect the Republican senator to mistakenly cast a vote for the retired teacher. However, opponents of efforts to remove Daniel J. Sullivan from the ballot argue that sharing a name is not grounds for disqualification and that Alaska's ranked-choice voting system allows voters to rank candidates, potentially mitigating the impact of mistaken choices.

Previously, Alaska's Division of Elections had disqualified the school teacher, Daniel J. Sullivan, deeming his candidacy a non-genuine effort to confuse voters. This decision was overturned in June by Alaska Superior Court Judge Thomas Matthews, who ruled that the Division of Elections lacked the authority to invalidate a candidacy on such grounds.

The general election ballot distinguishes the incumbent as "Sullivan, Dan S.," with Republican and incumbent designations, while the other candidate is listed as "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr.," without a party affiliation. Despite these distinctions, the DOJ remains unconvinced.

Legal experts are divided on the DOJ's prospects. Notre Dame law professor Derek Muller noted the difficulty in proving voter intent from anonymous ballots, stating, "This is just the stuff that is just impossible to measure after the fact." Attorney General Todd Blanche suggested that ranked-choice ballot patterns could reveal confusion, but it remains unclear how such patterns could definitively prove a voter's mistaken intention.

Don Palmer, senior legal fellow for election integrity at the Heritage Foundation, believes the DOJ might have a case if constructed properly, but cautions that statistical analysis alone may not be enough. He emphasized the need for witness testimony and expert analysis to demonstrate that a significant number of voters made choices contrary to their intentions. Walter Olson, a senior legal fellow at the Cato Institute, expressed skepticism, predicting that the state is likely to prevail in federal court.

Ben Hovland, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, questioned the DOJ's legal grounds, stating, "This is not a matter of federal law. This is a state ballot qualification issue." He suggested the DOJ's involvement might be an attempt to sow doubt about election results.

The state of Alaska has already filed a motion to dismiss the DOJ's case. The DOJ had not responded to requests for comment as of Tuesday.