Democrats weaponize Iran war votes in midterm campaign ads

Democrats and allied advocacy groups are flooding the airwaves with campaign ads focusing on votes related to the war in Iran, aiming to leverage public sentiment against the conflict and rising costs to win seats in the House and Senate. These ads, meticulously analyzed by the Associated Press using data from AdImpact, highlight how Democrats have strategically used war powers resolutions, which had little practical effect but forced lawmakers to publicly declare their stance.

The strategy, launched in the spring, has seen these votes become a central theme in campaign messaging. In Wisconsin, an ad criticizes Rep. Derrick Van Orden for voting on the Iran war, linking it to increased expenses for groceries and utilities. Similarly, in Nebraska, Democratic candidate Chris Backemeyer's campaign targeted Rep. Mike Flood, accusing him of voting for tariffs and the Iran war, which they claim has driven up prices for essential goods.

In Iowa, the Vote Vets Action Fund ran ads against Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, asserting her five votes on the Iran war contributed to record prices for gas and fertilizer. Even in cases where Republican candidates have not previously served in Congress, Democrats are portraying them as likely supporters of President Donald Trump's policies on the war.

The Associated Press examined broadcast and cable ads aired from September 1 through October 14 in competitive House and Senate races, also reviewing a smaller selection of streaming ads. At least half of the 50 featured races included Iran-related advertisements, with most connecting the conflict to household expenses. These ads have aired over 43,000 times since September 1, with an estimated cost of $42 million. Of the 65 identified Iran-themed ads, 61 emphasized cost-of-living issues such as rising fuel prices.

Republicans, meanwhile, have largely avoided the Iran war in their advertising, focusing instead on issues like taxes, crime, character, healthcare, and immigration. Republican strategist Ron Bonjean suggested that focusing on the Iran war is not a winning message for Republicans, as it plays into Democratic territory.

Some Republican candidates have attempted to distance themselves from the conflict. In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers stated the war needs to end quickly, a position that has drawn criticism from his Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, who has run ads emphasizing the daily cost of the war and advocating for domestic investment.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins highlighted her multiple votes to end the conflict during a debate, prompting her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson, to accuse her of voting to prolong it. The Senate has voted 14 times on resolutions to halt or restrict U.S. military action against Iran, while the House has held six such votes since late February.

The latest House vote saw seven Republicans join Democrats in voting to end the war. Among them were four Republicans seeking reelection in competitive districts: Tom Barrett of Michigan, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, and Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn of Iowa. For Miller-Meeks and Nunn, these were their first votes to remove U.S. troops from hostilities, signaling a growing weariness with the war.

While Iran-related ads constituted about 5% of total TV spots in competitive races, some districts saw a much higher concentration. In California's 48th Congressional District, roughly a third of all ads touched on Iran. Democratic candidate Marni von Wilpert's campaign used a remark by Republican Jim Desmond, who said "no pain, no gain" regarding initial price increases, to question his understanding of families' financial struggles. Desmond and the National Republican Congressional Committee responded by criticizing von Wilpert on local tax issues and highlighting Desmond's efforts to lower costs.

Virginia's 2nd Congressional District and Maine's 2nd Congressional District also featured a significant number of Iran-related ads, with approximately a quarter of advertisements in these highly competitive races addressing the conflict. In Ohio, nearly 4,000 Iran-themed ads aired, primarily from Democrat Sherrod Brown's campaign, focusing heavily on economic concerns.