Democrats Poised for Midterm Gains, Analyst Predicts

Current polling data indicates a 67% probability that Democrats will secure victories in both the House and the Senate in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. This projection represents a 15-percentage-point increase from August, when the likelihood was estimated at 52%.

Enten highlighted favorable Democratic polling in states such as Iowa, Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan. He also noted challenges faced by Republican candidates, citing Texas GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton's current negative popularity rating of minus 16 points. The analyst attributed a significant portion of the Republican Party's difficulties to former President Donald Trump, pointing to his low approval ratings on issues including immigration, trade, Iran, and the economy.

"These are atrocious numbers," Enten stated on "The Enten Scale," referring to Trump's performance metrics. "These are the types of numbers on which Democratic waves are built."

If current polling trends hold, Enten anticipates Democrats would hold 54 seats in the U.S. Senate, while Republicans would hold 46.