Democrats' Midterm Edge Narrower Than 2018 'Blue Wave,' Poll Indicates
A new NBC News poll shows Democrats with a slim 50%-45% lead among registered voters on the generic congressional ballot, a smaller margin than at a similar point in the 2018 cycle.
Democrats hold a narrower lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot than they did prior to the 2018 "blue wave" election, according to a recent NBC News poll. With 44 days remaining until the midterm elections, 50% of registered voters expressed a preference for Democratic control of Congress, compared to 45% for Republican control.
This 5-point margin is smaller than the 12-point advantage Democrats held at this stage in 2018. In that election cycle, Democrats ultimately gained control of the House of Representatives, but failed to secure the Senate. The final popular vote for the House in 2018 saw Democrats achieve an 8.6 percentage point edge over the GOP.
The current generic congressional ballot polling also lags behind the RealClearPolitics aggregate, which shows Democrats with an 8.1-point advantage.
Historically, the party holding the White House tends to lose seats in midterm elections, a trend observed in all but two elections since 1938. Factors such as concerns about affordability and President Trump's approval ratings, which stand underwater, have led many analysts to anticipate Democratic gains, particularly in the House.
However, the NBC News poll suggests that Democrats may not achieve the significant 41-seat House swing seen in 2018. Some analysts attribute this to redistricting following the latest census, which may make such large swings more difficult.
In the 2018 Senate races, Democrats lost seats despite a more challenging map for their party. Republicans successfully unseated Democratic incumbents in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, while Democrats picked up seats in Nevada and Arizona.
According to the poll, the Democratic party faces a perception challenge, with only 29% of respondents viewing it favorably, compared to 50% unfavorably. Republicans fared better, with 36% favorable and 49% unfavorable.
A notable finding was the low favorability rating for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), with only 22% viewing the group favorably. Approximately half of voters indicated they would be less likely to support a candidate endorsing DSA policies, a point Republicans have leveraged in their efforts to retain control of the House.
Despite the Democratic advantage, the survey indicates headwinds for the Republican party. President Trump's approval rating was at 41%, and 55% of respondents believed his policies have negatively impacted the economy, an increase from 48% in March.
Furthermore, 43% of voters stated their midterm vote would be a signal of opposition to Trump, while 27% indicated their vote would be in support of him. While Republicans have historically held an advantage on economic issues, the poll shows Democrats now have a 1-point edge over the GOP in this area.
"The problem for Trump and Republicans on the ballot in November is that he has also made history in the highest share of voters who say their vote is in opposition to Trump," Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates told NBC News.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between September 11-15, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.