Democrats Lead Republicans by 8 Points in Midterm Polling Average
A Daily Mail analysis of polling data shows Democrats with over 51 percent support as election day nears.
Democrats hold a significant advantage over Republicans in the latest polling averages, with just days remaining until the midterm elections. The Daily Mail's power polling average indicates Democrats with over 51 percent support compared to 43 percent for Republicans, an approximately eight-point lead.
This polling suggests that the midterms are more competitive than anticipated, with shifts in traditionally Republican areas contributing to the trend. According to prediction market data from Kalshi, Democrats have a 92 percent chance of winning the House of Representatives and a 70 percent chance of winning the Senate.
President Donald Trump has been actively campaigning, holding rallies across the country to support Republican candidates. His schedule has included stops in swing states such as Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa. However, his campaign appearances have often focused on Republican strongholds within these states, rather than contested purple districts.
The strategy appears to prioritize bolstering defenses in vulnerable areas rather than actively expanding the GOP's reach with the MAGA message to independent voters. Trump's campaign schedule has seen some fluctuations, with events in Iowa and Kansas initially canceled but later reinstated.
Specific races show close contests and potential shifts. In Kansas, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall is trailing his Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton in several polls. A new Emerson poll shows Marshall behind by three points, while a Washington Post survey indicates Hamilton holds a 10-point lead. A Democratic victory in the Kansas Senate race would be the first since the 1930s.
In Texas, a state long considered a Republican stronghold, Attorney General Ken Paxton, a candidate endorsed by Trump, is reportedly behind Democrat James Talarico in both prediction market data and recent polling. These developments suggest that cracks are appearing in the Republican base even in areas typically considered secure for the GOP.