CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten has released his final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections, indicating Democrats have their most favorable outlook yet for securing control of both chambers of Congress.
According to Enten's projections on "The Enten Scale," Democrats have a 92% probability of regaining the House of Representatives, with a predicted outcome of 237 seats for Democrats versus 198 for Republicans.
The Senate race is tighter, but Enten now gives Democrats a 71% chance of winning a majority. "That is a huge chance, but it’s still not 100%," he stated, acknowledging that Republicans still possess a 29% chance of retaining control. His forecast anticipates Democrats winning 52 Senate seats to the GOP's 48.
Enten cautioned that these figures represent a forecast and not a definitive guarantee, referencing past instances where Republican performance exceeded polling expectations. However, he highlighted several factors contributing to the favorable outlook for Democrats, including Donald Trump's historically low net approval rating, record-low approval of Congress, and the significant political impact of inflation.