Democrats Face Enthusiasm Gap and Shifting Landscape Ahead of Midterms, Poll Shows

Democrats are entering the final week before the midterm elections with a lead on the congressional ballot, but a new poll indicates potential challenges that could limit their gains. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found Democrats leading Republicans by eight points among likely voters when asked about their congressional district candidate if the election were held today. However, the survey highlights lagging enthusiasm among key Democratic voting blocs and a narrowing gap in how closely voters are following the election.

A significant confidence gap exists within the Democratic party, with 98 percent of likely Democratic voters stating they would vote for their party's candidate, but only 81 percent believing that candidate would win—a 17-point difference. In contrast, Republicans showed a smaller gap of 10 points between intending to vote for their candidate and expecting them to win. This contrasts with the Republican party, where the difference between intending to vote for their candidate and expecting them to win was 10 points.

President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 40 percent among likely voters, with 59 percent disapproving. His personal favorability is lower, at 37 percent favorable and 59 percent unfavorable. More than twice as many likely voters indicated their vote would be against Trump (44 percent) as those who said it would be in support of him (21 percent). Despite Trump's unpopularity, dissatisfaction does not automatically translate to Democratic votes.

Enthusiasm levels show disparities among key demographics. Only 42 percent of likely voters under 45 reported being 'very enthusiastic' about voting, compared to 68 percent of MAGA voters. Among non-white voters and white women with college degrees—groups that disapprove of Trump's job performance—enthusiasm was 53 percent and 56 percent, respectively. While Democrats maintain an overall enthusiasm advantage, with 71 percent of Democratic likely voters expressing high enthusiasm compared to 61 percent of Republicans, the gap in election attentiveness has closed. Last month, Democrats were more likely to be following the election closely (42 percent) than Republicans (34 percent); the latest poll shows these figures at 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans.

Compounding these challenges, redistricting efforts have altered the political landscape, potentially favoring Republicans and limiting the number of seats Democrats might gain even with a strong national performance. Historically, similar Democratic leads on the congressional ballot in 2018 and 2006 corresponded with substantial House seat gains. However, map changes following the 2020 Census and subsequent mid-decade adjustments have reshaped the playing field.

The economy remains a primary concern for voters, with 38 percent reporting their personal finances have worsened over the past year, and a third experiencing financial hardship. The poll also indicates a desire for change, as 55 percent of likely voters believe electing candidates with new ideas is more important. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll surveyed 1,289 registered voters between October 19 and 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters.