Democrats are in a "historically strong" position heading into the November midterm elections, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. He indicated that the party's performance in this year's primaries serves as a strong indicator that they could retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Enten pointed to primary election data showing that Democrats have accounted for 57% of votes cast so far this year, compared to 43% for Republicans. This marks a notable shift from the 2022 midterms, when Republicans held a 53% share of primary votes compared to the Democrats' 47%.
In the 2018 midterm cycle, when Democrats successfully regained control of the House, they held a 54% share of primary votes cast prior to the election. "This is a historically strong position for Democrats. The energy is on the Democratic side of the aisle," Enten stated.
He further emphasized the correlation between primary turnout and general election outcomes. Enten noted that since 2006, the party with a higher turnout in the primaries has consistently won the House in the subsequent midterm elections. "When your side comes out and votes more in the primary, it forecasts very good fortunes come the fall in midterm elections," Enten said. "When more of you turn out, you take back the House or hold onto the House."