Democrat Cait Conley holds a 6-percentage-point lead over two-term Republican Rep. Michael Lawler in New York's 17th congressional district, according to a poll released Wednesday by House Democrats. The survey indicates Conley, an Army veteran, leads Lawler 51% to 45% among likely voters.

The poll, conducted by FM3 Research for the House Majority PAC from June 27 to July 1, found that 55% of voters in the district hold an unfavorable view of Lawler, while 39% have a favorable view. President Trump's popularity in the district is also described as "underwater," with 60% viewing him unfavorably and 38% favorably.

The survey included 509 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The 17th District encompasses Rockland and Putnam counties, northern Westchester County, and parts of southern Dutchess County.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up. Lawler, a former state assemblyman, is seeking a third term. His legislative priorities have included efforts to restore the state and local tax deduction and strong support for Israel. He defeated ex-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 and ex-Congressman Mondaire Jones in 2024.

Conley, who won a competitive Democratic primary, is a West Point graduate and former director of counterterrorism on the National Security Council in the Biden administration. She served in the U.S. Army and completed six overseas deployments.

House Majority PAC spokesman CJ Warnke stated, "Mike Lawler is a slimy politician who has consistently voted to raise gas prices, cut health care, and make life more expensive. NY-17 has had enough and in November, Cait Conley will be elected to Congress."

Representatives for Lawler dismissed the poll, with campaign spokesman Chris Russell calling it a "made up poll cooked up by a far left group." The Lawler campaign has criticized Conley over her consulting work with AI and tech companies, asserting she earns over $300,000 annually and wants to raise taxes while not having paid taxes in the district herself. Lawler has also raised concerns about Conley's work with Primer AI and Hidden Level, which do business with the defense department and have ties to Palantir, a company that provides ICE with technology for tracking immigrants.

Republicans reportedly spent money attacking Conley during the Democratic primary, suggesting they anticipated her to be Lawler's strongest challenger.