The Democratic National Committee's (DNC) decision to place South Carolina first in the 2028 presidential primary calendar is viewed by some analysts not as a move for racial diversity, but as a strategic maneuver by the party establishment to maintain control and thwart the influence of progressive factions, particularly the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
Historically, South Carolina has served as a critical firewall for establishment candidates. In 2016, Bernie Sanders' progressive campaign, after strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, faced a significant setback when Joe Biden decisively won the South Carolina primary in 2020. This pattern suggests that the state's electorate, which is more racially diverse and tends to be less politically radical than early states like Iowa or New Hampshire, aligns more closely with the preferences of the party's established wing.
According to analyses, the demographic makeup of South Carolina's Democratic primary voters has consistently favored establishment figures. In 2016, nearly three-quarters of Democratic primary voters in the state supported Hillary Clinton over Sanders. Four years later, Biden's victory over Sanders in South Carolina was by a ratio of more than two-to-one.
This alignment benefits candidates who fit the establishment profile, such as Vice President Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom. Harris, with her national recognition as a former Vice President and presidential nominee, and her demographic representation, is seen as a strong contender who could benefit from an early South Carolina contest.
The DNC's strategy is also interpreted as an attempt to manage the ideological direction of the party. The DSA, described as the left fringe of the party, is disproportionately white, with a significant majority of its New York City chapter identifying as white, according to internal polling. This racial disparity is seen as a key difference between the party's most ideologically driven faction and its broader base, which is seen as loyal to the establishment.
Beyond the internal party dynamics, the Democratic Party faces broader electoral challenges. Demographic shifts and population migration patterns are leading to Republican gains in the Electoral College and the U.S. House of Representatives, as states like California lose population and businesses while Republican-led states grow. Democrats aim to counter this trend by recapturing Southern states.
States like Georgia and Virginia are seen as potential battlegrounds. Georgia's growth, fueled by prosperity under Republican leadership, has led to the expansion of Atlanta and a shift towards the Democratic Party in its suburbs. Virginia has already become a purple or reliably Democratic state, partly due to the growth of its Democratic-leaning suburbs near Washington D.C.
North Carolina is also identified as a state where the Republican Party's hold may be weakening. The Democratic establishment believes its strategy, including the early placement of South Carolina, can help regain these Southern states while maintaining control of the party apparatus and preventing a takeover by the DSA. The prevailing view within the establishment is that the DSA, despite its ideological intensity, will ultimately fall in line with the party's broader objectives.
However, the effectiveness of this strategy is debated. Some analyses suggest that the party's ideologically ascendant progressive wing is ill-suited to capitalize on the emerging opportunities in the South. This internal conflict for control of the Democratic Party's direction could create vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, Republicans are urged to focus on competing in the South and in urban areas, even those within flourishing red states, to maintain their electoral advantage, particularly in the Electoral College and the House of Representatives, which were key to their victories in 2016 and 2024.