Democrat Talarico Holds Narrow Lead Over Paxton in Texas Senate Race Amidst Leaked Audio Controversy

Democrat James Talarico holds a slim lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the Texas Senate, according to a Fox News poll released in late September. The poll, which surveyed 881 likely Texas voters, showed Talarico at 51 percent and Paxton at 49 percent, a two-point margin within the poll's three-percentage-point margin of error.

The survey was conducted days before leaked audio emerged of Paxton making critical remarks about a Republican convention in Dallas attended by former President Donald Trump. In the recording, obtained by The New York Times, Paxton appeared to suggest the convention had negatively impacted Republican candidates' polling numbers, including his own.

Paxton's campaign dismissed the report as "manipulated nonsense" and stated that their internal polling showed Paxton leading by three points. Trump, when questioned about the comments, defended the Dallas convention as "amazing," and Vice President JD Vance indicated that Republicans would continue to support Paxton.

Beyond the leaked audio, Paxton also faces lingering questions from his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, from which he was acquitted by the Texas Senate.

The Fox News poll also revealed significant differences in favorability ratings between the two candidates. Talarico enjoys a net positive rating of eight points, with 52 percent viewing him favorably and 44 percent unfavorably. Paxton, conversely, has a net negative rating of minus 18, with 40 percent favorable and 58 percent unfavorable ratings.

Divisions within the Republican electorate are also apparent. Non-MAGA Republicans are considerably more likely to support Talarico than MAGA Republicans, with 22 percent of non-MAGA Republicans crossing party lines compared to 4 percent of MAGA Republicans. Notably, 20 percent of voters who supported Republican Senator John Cornyn in the March primary now back Talarico.

Democratic voters, meanwhile, are showing strong unity behind Talarico, with 100 percent of DSA Democrats and 98 percent of non-DSA Democrats supporting him.

Talarico is performing strongly among Black voters (79 percent), moderates (65 percent), Hispanic voters (64 percent), and voters under 35 (62 percent). Paxton's strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians (74 percent), White men without a college degree (65 percent), rural voters (57 percent), and voters aged 65 and over (55 percent).

The economy is emerging as a key issue, with seven in ten Texas voters citing the cost of living as extremely important. Voters who report falling behind financially favor Talarico by 32 points, while those getting ahead support Paxton by 48 points.

On specific issues, Talarico leads among voters prioritizing the cost of living and artificial intelligence, while Paxton holds an advantage among those focused on immigration.

Trump's influence remains a factor, with Talarico leading among voters for whom Trump's performance is a crucial voting consideration, whereas Paxton gains among those focused on immigration.

Concerns exist for both candidates: 53 percent of voters express concern that Talarico is too liberal, while 51 percent are worried about Paxton's close ties to Trump.

Among the broader registered voter population, Talarico's lead expands to seven points, up from three points in July. However, the poll of likely voters remains tight, with the 51–49 result falling within the margin of error.

The race has been characterized by an intense advertising war. Talarico's recent ads have addressed claims against him and accused Paxton of using AI-generated videos. Paxton's latest ad features his daughter, highlighting his role as a family values advocate. Outside groups have also injected significant funds into the contest, with Republican groups alone spending approximately $122 million on advertising in Texas during September, with an additional $66 million reserved through Election Day.