Czech President Petr Pavel has warned that Russia may consider a general mobilization for the war in Ukraine following parliamentary elections on September 20, potentially closing the window for peace negotiations.
Pavel, a retired general and former chairman of NATO's military committee, stated that the period before the Russian elections presents an opportunity to "keep pushing and giving Russia a clear message that we are willing to start negotiations." He cautioned, however, that "once the elections are over, then the window will shrink."
Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, Pavel urged Western allies to increase pressure on Moscow in the coming weeks. He argued that Russia is facing growing internal challenges and that sustained Ukrainian strikes deep within Russian territory, coupled with continued Western support for Kyiv, could create conditions for Moscow to become more amenable to negotiations.
Recent Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted areas including Moscow, oil infrastructure in western Siberia, and fuel supplies destined for occupied Crimea. Pavel indicated that such actions could expose weaknesses behind the front lines and disrupt fuel supplies, contributing to strain within Russia.
He emphasized that NATO must continue to supply Ukraine with necessary military support while maintaining diplomatic pressure. Pavel believes Russia could achieve more through negotiations than by prolonging the conflict.
The Czech leader also addressed the NATO summit, dismissing concerns that then-U.S. President Donald Trump might disrupt the proceedings. Pavel stated that the meeting successfully met its objectives of demonstrating increased defense spending, presenting a united front, and reaffirming support for Ukraine. He noted that closed-door discussions did not involve Trump's prior public remarks about Greenland, and described the summit as smoother than anticipated. Trump reportedly expressed his impression of the "spirit shown in the room" to fellow leaders before the meeting concluded.
Discussions at the summit also included concrete proposals for strengthening Ukraine's air defenses, such as a Norwegian initiative to procure additional surface-to-air missiles for Kyiv. Pavel highlighted the need for NATO to rapidly expand weapons production, as demand for air defense missiles and other advanced weaponry is currently outpacing manufacturing capacity.
He outlined a "defence strategy 3.0," suggesting the alliance should maintain 30-day stockpiles of less advanced weapons while ensuring industry is prepared to quickly ramp up production of more sophisticated systems, including long-range missiles and air defense interceptors. Pavel also confirmed that NATO's nuclear deterrence policy remains unchanged despite discussions among some European countries regarding future defense arrangements.