COVID-19 cases are beginning to increase in various parts of the United States, particularly in the South and along the West Coast, according to recent health tracking data. While overall national case numbers are still low, wastewater surveillance in several states shows a noticeable uptick.
States including Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Washington, D.C., are reporting low levels of COVID-19 activity. However, Kentucky, Hawaii, and California are currently experiencing moderate levels, and Alaska is reporting high levels of the virus, based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) wastewater testing.
Experts note that tracking precise case numbers has become more challenging due to changes in funding for testing and a decrease in the use of at-home tests. Wastewater testing has emerged as a reliable method for monitoring trends within communities and states, as it does not require individual laboratory analysis.
This summer increase aligns with patterns observed in previous years. Dr. Susan Kline, a professor at the University of Minnesota, stated that the lowest COVID-19 rates typically occur in late June or early July, with an increase beginning in August. Last year saw a peak in late August and early September, a possibility that could be replicated this year. Following the summer, COVID-19 tends to peak again in the winter, around late December or early January.
Several factors may be contributing to the current rise in cases. A general decrease in COVID-19 vaccinations means a larger portion of the population may be more susceptible to infection. Data from the CDC indicates that only 17.5% of American adults and 8.9% of children received the 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine. Additionally, increased summer travel, which involves crowded public spaces like airports and planes, can facilitate the spread of respiratory viruses.
Public health officials emphasize that effective measures remain available to protect individuals and communities. These include frequent hand washing, wearing masks in crowded indoor settings or when near visibly ill individuals, and staying home when experiencing symptoms of respiratory illness to prevent transmission. Current at-home tests are capable of detecting the prevalent COVID-19 variants.
For individuals who test positive and are at high risk, treatments like Paxlovid can help reduce the risk of long COVID and speed recovery, though they are most effective when started early in the illness. Vaccination continues to be the most effective preventive measure against severe outcomes such as hospitalization and death.
The 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine is currently available. However, health authorities like the FDA have advised manufacturers to update vaccine formulations to better match currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Some experts recommend waiting for the updated 2026-2027 vaccine, expected in the fall, though exceptions may exist for high-risk individuals or those with upcoming travel plans. Consulting a healthcare provider is advised to determine the best vaccination strategy.
Beyond COVID-19, a significant increase in measles cases has also been reported, highlighting the importance of vaccination for various preventable diseases. As the country approaches flu season, health experts stress that vaccinations are a crucial defense against widespread outbreaks of influenza, COVID-19, and other illnesses. They reiterate that vaccines for diseases like measles, mumps, and rubella are safe, effective, and readily available, making the contraction of such diseases inexcusable.