The resignation of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has intensified reflection on the legacy of Brexit, a decade after the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union. While public opinion shows a growing desire for closer ties with the EU, and prominent politicians suggest a potential return, the path to rejoining is fraught with political and practical challenges.
Starmer, who had argued for making the best of the post-Brexit situation, is stepping down amid declining approval ratings, attributed to sluggish economic growth and policy U-turns. His departure sets up a leadership contest within the Labour Party, with potential successors like Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting having expressed openness to the UK rejoining the EU in the future, though not by immediately reopening old debates. A top Treasury official has even suggested a return to membership is an "inevitability."
Public sentiment in the UK appears to be shifting. A YouGov poll indicates 55 percent of Britons favor returning to full EU membership, while a European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) poll found 63 percent support closer economic relations, even if it means accepting the free movement of people. This contrasts with the original arguments for Brexit, which heavily emphasized border security.
A Decade of Post-Brexit Disappointment
Ten years since the referendum, Brexit has not delivered the promised economic or political benefits. A Bank of England study estimates the UK's GDP is six to eight percent lower than it would have been had the country remained in the EU. Economic indicators such as business productivity and investment have declined, and living standards have risen weakly compared to other nations. Advocates for leaving had predicted benefits from independent trade deals, but a comprehensive free trade agreement with the United States has stalled, and recent deals fall short of original ambitions.
Furthermore, the political landscape has been unsettled by global events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, making it difficult to isolate Brexit's precise impact. However, the perceived advantages of pooling negotiating power with the EU are becoming more appealing, particularly in areas like AI regulation and European military coordination, which have been hampered by the UK's departure from the bloc.
The Complex Path Back to the EU
Despite the growing public appetite, a return to the EU is far from imminent. Rejoining would likely require a new public mandate, potentially through another referendum or a general election platform, neither of which is currently scheduled. The divisive nature of the original Brexit debate suggests that even leaders favoring re-entry may be hesitant to expend significant political capital on relitigating the issue.
Experts suggest that a return might only occur under extraordinary circumstances, such as a severe political or economic crisis. If the UK were to apply, it would face a formal accession process. While the UK would likely meet criteria for rule of law and economic openness, the process could be lengthy. European governments would need to be convinced of the UK's genuine commitment, and national parliaments, potentially including referendums in countries like France, would need to approve membership. The UK would also likely not be able to secure the bespoke membership terms it previously enjoyed, such as opt-outs from the Euro and the Schengen area.
Lessons for American Politics
The recent political developments in the UK, including Starmer's resignation and his party's electoral struggles after attempting to moderate its stance on issues like immigration, offer a complex lesson for American politics. While some see Starmer's decline as a warning against moderation, others argue his initial rise was due to repositioning the Labour Party to the center. However, his failure to deliver substantive improvements in quality of life and his shift on immigration alienated both progressives and potential swing voters.
The context differs for the United States, where the two-party system offers fewer alternatives for dissatisfied voters. Nevertheless, the experience suggests that successful moderation requires more than policy shifts; it demands a clear affirmative vision and authenticity. Compromising core identity or pursuing poll-tested policies without an underlying conviction risks alienating both the base and potential new supporters, a strategy that proved unsuccessful for Starmer and the Labour Party.