Corruption Concerns Loom Over Brazil's Presidential Runoff

Corruption remains a significant concern for Brazilian voters as they approach the Oct. 25 runoff election between far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and left-leaning Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. However, experts suggest that corruption's primary impact may not be in influencing candidate choice but in potentially driving up voter abstention.

Both Bolsonaro and da Silva face corruption allegations. Bolsonaro is currently under investigation for corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva previously served 19 months in prison on corruption and money laundering charges, which were later annulled.

For staunch supporters of either candidate, these allegations may not diminish their enthusiasm. Yet, a pervasive perception of corruption can lead to increased abstention and anti-incumbency sentiment, which could potentially benefit Bolsonaro. In the first round of voting, Bolsonaro secured 2.2 million more votes than da Silva.

During the initial round, voter turnout reflected the nation's deep polarization, with many displaying either red, the color associated with da Silva's party, or the yellow and green of the Brazilian flag, adopted by Bolsonaro's movement.

Experts note that highly polarized voters often filter information that contradicts their existing beliefs, prioritizing defeating the opposing candidate over scrutinizing corruption allegations. "People don’t want to discover the truth about their candidates, they want to beat the opponent," said Nara Pavão, a political science professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco.

Despite corruption being a significant issue for many, including 19-year-old student Camila Tobji de Aquino, her primary concern is the perceived threat Bolsonaro poses to democracy. She stated, "If I were to vote only for a candidate not tied to any corruption, I would vote blank. But that’s not the choice Brazil is facing. For me it’s a question of being able to vote in the next election."

A recent scandal involving politicians and judges at Brazil’s Supreme Court, including allegations against Justice Alexandre de Moraes and Flávio Bolsonaro regarding ties to the former head of the failed Banco Master bank, has intensified public debate on corruption. Both individuals have denied any wrongdoing.

The Banco Master scandal evokes memories of Operation Car Wash, Brazil's largest corruption and money-laundering investigation, launched in 2014, which implicated numerous politicians.

Repeated corruption scandals can lead to voter disillusionment and a decreased motivation to choose between the two main candidates, according to Laura Chelidonopoulos, a political science PhD candidate at the University of Pittsburgh who studies corruption. "People become disenchanted with politics," she said. "They have less motivation to actually choose between one of these two sides."

The first round of elections saw an abstention rate of 21%, with over 33 million eligible voters not casting their ballots, marking the highest first-round abstention rate since 1998. Abstention in the first round has seen a gradual increase since 2006.

José Tainan, a 36-year-old kitchen assistant, cited corruption as the primary reason he stopped voting. "There are no good options. Neither one of them suits me. I would rather justify why I didn’t vote," he said.

Voting is mandatory in Brazil for citizens aged 18 to 70, with fines imposed for failure to vote without a valid reason.

Matusalem Aguiar, a 54-year-old taxi driver, expressed a desire for politicians with unblemished records but stated he would still vote for Bolsonaro, disregarding the ongoing graft investigations. "There needs to be a change," Aguiar said. "Some people have a lot of power and they’re not managing the country in the right way."