Democrat Roy Cooper holds a 53% to 44% lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the race for North Carolina's open Senate seat, according to a new Fox News poll. The Democratic candidate's advantage is particularly strong among voters expressing high enthusiasm for the midterm elections.
More Democrats than Republicans in North Carolina report being extremely interested in the midterms (51% vs. 42%) and extremely motivated to vote (58% vs. 50%). This enthusiasm gap translates to a wider margin for Cooper among highly interested voters, who favor him by 57% to 42%, and among those highly motivated to vote, who support him 55% to 42%. The current polling suggests the race is unchanged among voters who are certain to cast a ballot, with Cooper leading 53% to 44%.
Whatley, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee, is seeking to fill the seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis. Cooper previously served as North Carolina's governor from 2017 to 2025.
Cooper's support base includes moderates, voters under 30, independents, college graduates, and women. He also garners support from approximately 20% of non-MAGA Republicans and conservatives. Whatley's strongest support comes from very conservative voters, White evangelical Christians, White voters without college degrees, and rural voters.
The poll also indicates a difference in the motivation behind voter support. While 84% of Cooper's supporters say they are voting for him, only 46% of Whatley's supporters say the same, with 52% citing opposition to Cooper as their primary reason. A significant majority of voters for both candidates, however, express certainty in their choice, with 81% of Cooper's backers and 77% of Whatley's backers stating they will not change their vote. One in five voters overall indicated they could switch their preference.
Former President Trump's standing in North Carolina could impact the race for Whatley. Forty percent of the state's voters view Trump favorably, while 58% view him unfavorably, a net negative of 18 points. This is a notable shift from two years prior when his ratings were underwater by only 6 points. Whatley's association with Trump concerns 48% of North Carolina voters, with this concern extending across various political leanings, including a majority of moderates and significant portions of independents and non-MAGA Republicans. Conversely, concerns about Cooper's ties to the Democratic establishment are more partisan, with 42% overall expressing concern, predominantly among Republicans.
Cooper holds a personal popularity advantage, with a 54% favorable rating compared to Whatley's 40%. Cooper is also viewed more favorably than the Democratic Party itself, while Whatley trails the Republican Party. Whatley remains less known, with 14% of voters unable to rate him or having never heard of him.
Both major parties face negative perceptions in North Carolina. The Republican Party has a 44% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating, while the Democratic Party's ratings are 42% favorable and 56% unfavorable. Among voters who view both parties negatively, Cooper receives twice the support of Whatley.
Inflation is the leading issue for North Carolina voters deciding their Senate choice, cited by 36%. Political divisions (14%), healthcare (13%), and immigration (13%) follow. Half of voters describe their financial situation as stable, with 12% getting ahead and 38% falling behind.
North Carolina's recent electoral history presents a mixed picture. Democrats have won the governorship in eight of the last ten elections, including Cooper's reelection victory by nearly 5 percentage points in 2020. However, Republicans have carried the state in 11 of the last 12 presidential elections, with Trump winning by 3 percentage points in 2024. The last Democrat to win the state in a presidential election was Barack Obama in 2008 by 0.3%.
The Fox News Poll surveyed 1,005 North Carolina registered voters between July 23-27, 2026. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.