Congress Projected as Biggest Loser Regardless of Midterm Election Outcomes

Regardless of the midterm election results, Congress is poised to be the primary loser, becoming less effective and more dysfunctional. This trend diminishes the legislative branch's power, leaving it overshadowed by the executive and increasingly serving as a platform for media appearances rather than lawmaking.

The Founding Fathers envisioned Congress as the preeminent branch of government, responsible for creating laws. However, this role has eroded over the past two decades. Presidents have increasingly utilized executive orders, exemplified by Barack Obama's "pen and a phone" approach, to enact policies without congressional approval. This shift has extended to foreign policy, with presidents making decisions about military action without seeking formal congressional consent.

Historically, congressional leaders held significant sway, capable of influencing presidential agendas and even forcing resignations, as seen in the Nixon era. Major legislative achievements, such as the Affordable Care Act and the 2017 Trump tax cuts, were largely shaped by Capitol Hill leaders. However, this influence has waned. Cabinet confirmations have often become party-line votes, and federal programs are increasingly designed to continue operating independently of annual congressional funding.

A notable shift in power occurred when former President Donald Trump used tariffs, leveraging decades-old vague laws to unilaterally alter tax policies. Although the Supreme Court eventually struck down some of the largest tariffs, Congress remained a passive observer. Similarly, impeachment proceedings have become a routine political tool, with instances like the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, which did not proceed to a Senate trial.

Large-scale budget bills, often passed with little individual member input and before holiday recesses, have become a common legislative output. The experienced generation of congressional leaders has largely retired or faded from influence, leaving a void in legislative strategy and negotiation.

If Democrats gain control of the House in the midterms, as anticipated, legislative output is expected to further decline due to a lack of common ground with the Trump administration. Republicans, in turn, have shown a tendency to defer to Trump's initiatives, potentially perpetuating the use of executive orders. While Senate Republicans might confirm judicial appointments, Democrats have indicated they would block such confirmations if they gain control of the Senate.

Democrats are also expected to initiate a series of investigations, although cooperation from the Trump administration is unlikely. The inherent checks and balances, such as subpoenas and potential contempt charges, are likely to face legal challenges and could be countered by presidential pardons, mirroring tactics seen in past administrations.

Key legislative battlegrounds will likely include budget negotiations, the debt ceiling, and potential government shutdowns. Democrats may seek to defund initiatives like the Iran War or immigration enforcement. However, government shutdowns are generally unpopular and difficult to sustain without substantial congressional majorities, and Trump has demonstrated an ability to keep government functions operational through alternative means, sometimes by bending legal interpretations.

Trump may also seek to advance foreign policy objectives, such as actions in Iran, before the new Congress convenes. This aligns with a strategy of concluding actions quickly, leaving the incoming Congress with limited recourse. The precedent of swift military actions, such as the operation in Venezuela, may inform future strategies. Meanwhile, members of Congress may increasingly focus on presidential aspirations rather than legislative duties in the lead-up to future elections.