College Football Week 9: Unexpected Parity and Key Matchups
After two months, college football has seen a record number of upsets, leaving only three undefeated teams and challenging traditional power structures.
College football has reached a point of unprecedented parity, with only three undefeated teams remaining – the lowest number at this stage of the season since 1977. This unusual landscape follows a series of upsets, including four teams ranked No. 1 or 2 losing in the past three weeks, with three of those losses coming against unranked opponents. The past three weeks have also seen 10 teams in the top 10 fall, matching a mark not seen since 1936.
Despite the widespread unpredictability, No. 1 Georgia remains the favorite to win the national title, currently listed at +450. The Bulldogs, who boast the fifth-highest scoring offense and a defense ranked 13th in yards per play allowed, are led by head coach Kirby Smart. Since 2021, Smart has a 71-10 record, and his teams have performed exceptionally well after a bye week, going 22-2 in regular-season games with more than one week to prepare over the last decade.
Week 9 Predictions and Analysis
Notre Dame vs. Navy: Notre Dame is favored by 30.5 points. While Navy's triple-option offense has given the Irish trouble in recent years, Navy has lost the last three meetings by at least 37 points.
Wisconsin vs. Iowa: Wisconsin is a 3.5-point underdog. Both teams feature top-20 defenses, and Iowa has had recent success in this matchup, but the value of the 3.5-point spread is noted.
Arizona vs. Texas Tech: Arizona is a 3.5-point underdog. Texas Tech relies heavily on turnovers to compensate for a weak pass defense, while Arizona's senior quarterback Noah Fifita leads an offense averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game and ranks second nationally in completion percentage.
Auburn vs. Ole Miss: Auburn is a 13.5-point underdog. Ole Miss's run defense, ranked worst in the SEC, is expected to struggle against Auburn's dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown, who has averaged over 75 rushing yards and scored five touchdowns in his last six games.
Arizona State vs. BYU: Arizona State is a 16.5-point underdog. BYU, coming off an upset, faces an Arizona State team where the Cougars have struggled to win by large margins against power conference teams and have a losing record in daytime games since 2019.
Minnesota vs. Indiana: Minnesota is a 20.5-point favorite. Indiana's offense has struggled, averaging less than 14 points in its last three games, and their quarterback faces a top-25 pass defense.
Utah vs. Cincinnati: Utah is favored by 6.5 points. Cincinnati's defense, ranked 129th nationally, is unlikely to slow down Utah's offense, which ranks in the top 15 nationally and has a strong record against the spread as a favorite.
Wake Forest vs. Virginia: Wake Forest is favored by 12.5 points. The Demon Deacons' offense is ranked in the top 10, but their defense, averaging 2.6 sacks per game, faces a Virginia offensive line that has allowed the fourth-highest sack percentage in the nation.
Nevada vs. UCLA: UCLA is favored by 22.5 points. The undefeated Bruins, unaccustomed to such success, might be looking past a sub-.500 Nevada team. The Wolf Pack have a solid record against the spread as underdogs.
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma: South Carolina is a 4.5-point underdog. Oklahoma's offense has struggled to score touchdowns, while South Carolina's quarterback has been responsible for 10 touchdowns in the last three weeks, leading to victories over Florida and Tennessee.
Ohio State vs. USC: Ohio State is a 6.5-point favorite. Despite past quarterback injuries, Ohio State remains a national title contender, supported by a strong defense and key playmakers.
Mississippi State vs. Texas: Mississippi State is a 20.5-point underdog. Texas's offense ranks poorly in yards per play and giveaways, and the team has a losing record against the spread as a favorite.
Miami vs. North Carolina: Miami is favored by 14 points. North Carolina's pass defense is ranked 75th nationally and will face the nation's highest-scoring offense.
Arkansas vs. Missouri: Arkansas is a 9.5-point underdog. The Razorbacks are showing improvement under their new coach, while Missouri has struggled in recent road games against SEC opponents.
This season's best bets include Minnesota, Utah, and South Carolina, with an overall record of 16-8 for best bets so far.