Preseason rankings in college football have long been a source of intense debate, but for some teams, a high initial ranking has proven to be a harbinger of a disappointing season. The 21st century has seen several teams ranked in the top 10 before the season begins falter dramatically, often overlooking roster weaknesses amidst sky-high expectations.
Early 21st Century Collapses
The 2001 Oregon State Beavers, following an 11-win season in 2000 and a Fiesta Bowl victory, began the year ranked in the top 10. However, the team lost three of its first four games, including its opener to Fresno State. A significant loss to UCLA sent them out of the top 25, and they finished the season with a 5-6 record, missing a bowl game. Head coach Dennis Erickson departed for the NFL the following season.
The USC Trojan's 2012 Stumble
The 2012 USC Trojans, touted as preseason national championship favorites, experienced a historic collapse. Returning numerous stars, including quarterback Matt Barkley, and eligible for postseason play after a ban, USC held a top-10 ranking heading into late October. However, the team lost five of its final six games, finishing the season unranked. This marked the first time a preseason number one team ended the season outside the top 25 since 1964. Lane Kiffin was fired a season later.
Texas A&M's 2022 Letdown
In 2022, the Texas A&M Aggies, bolstered by what was considered the greatest recruiting class in college football history, entered the season ranked sixth. Their aspirations unraveled quickly when Appalachian State defeated them 17-14 early in the season. Despite beating some top-15 teams, the Aggies lost their next six games, failing to make a bowl game. The collapse contrasted sharply with the momentum from their top recruiting class.
Florida State's 2023 Struggles
The 2023 Florida State Seminoles, ranked in the top 10 and seeking revenge after a near-College Football Playoff appearance the previous year, began their season with a last-second loss to Georgia Tech. The team then suffered home losses to unranked Boston College and Group of 5 team Memphis. After a close win against Cal, Florida State lost six consecutive games, scoring more than 16 points in none of them, finishing with a 2-10 record. This marked a significant fall for head coach Mike Norvell's program.
Penn State's 2025 Meltdown
The 2025 Penn State Nittany Lions, with quarterback Drew Allar and strong returning talent, were expected to contend for a national championship. After starting 3-0 and even with a close overtime loss to a ranked Oregon, the season took a turn with an upset loss to a winless UCLA team. Further losses, including one to Northwestern, led to head coach James Franklin's dismissal during the season. The team went on to lose six straight games, ultimately playing Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl to secure bowl eligibility.