CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Monday that a growing number of Republican retirements from the U.S. House of Representatives is a “pretty good” sign for Democrats as they look toward the 2026 midterm elections.
Enten told CNN anchor John Berman that 27 House members have announced retirements so far in the 2025-26 cycle — the highest total this century — and that the departures include members seeking higher office. Seventeen Republicans and 10 Democrats have announced they will leave the chamber in this cycle, compared with an average of 16 retirements at this point in cycles from 2005 through 2024, Enten said.
Enten likened the current pattern of retirements to the 2017-18 cycle, when 18 Republicans and eight Democrats left the House. Those departures preceded the 2018 midterms, in which Democrats flipped the House and gained a net 41 seats. "We’ll have to wait and see if history holds, but if it does, two thumbs up for the Democrats," Enten said on air.
The CNN analyst noted a longer-term statistical trend: since 2005, in eight of nine cycles where the number of retirements differed between parties at the same point, the party with fewer retirements went on to win the House the following election year. Enten cautioned that the pattern is not a guarantee but said the current figures are one of several indicators that could favor Democrats.
The retirements arrive as Republican control of the House is at its slimmest in more than 90 years. Political analysts say narrow margins can magnify the electoral impact of open-seat contests, where incumbency advantages do not apply. Open seats often attract competitive primaries and general-election battles that can be pivotal in determining control of the chamber.
Enten pointed out that the record total of 27 retirements in this cycle includes members leaving to run for higher office, a factor that can alter the electoral dynamics in those districts. He stressed that it remains early in the cycle and that candidate quality, district lines, national political conditions and campaign funding will all shape the 2026 outcome.
Political observers caution that retirements are only one of many variables affecting control of the House. Past election cycles have shown that midterm outcomes can hinge on presidential approval ratings, economic conditions, turnout patterns and individual district-level factors. Nonetheless, analysts note that when one party has substantially more incumbents depart, it can create opportunities for the opposing party to contest and potentially flip seats.
Enten’s remarks followed a wider trend of increased turnover in Congress this cycle. The higher-than-average retirement rate has prompted attention from campaign strategists, party committees and political researchers assessing where to allocate resources for the 2026 campaign season. Party officials from both sides have not yet publicly tied their national strategies to the retirement numbers, and both parties are continuing to recruit candidates and prepare for primaries and general-election campaigns.
As the 2026 midterms approach, analysts say the full significance of this cycle’s retirements will depend on how many open seats become competitive, the partisan lean of those districts, and how national and local factors influence voter decisions. Enten emphasized that while the early indicators are favorable to Democrats, final outcomes will depend on developments over the next year and a half.