CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten said Wednesday that Zohran Mamdani’s lead in the New York City mayoral race is driven largely by strong backing from Democratic voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, not by a remaking of the city’s electorate.
Enten cited a recent New York Times/Siena College poll showing 62% of likely voters in the November mayoral election said they voted for Harris last year, and that 86% of Mamdani’s supporters had backed Harris. The poll gives Mamdani 46% support, well ahead of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 24%, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa at 15% and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 9%.
"The primary win may have been historic, but the reason he leads in the general election is not historic at all," Enten said on CNN. He framed Mamdani’s strength as a function of running in a "very Democratic city" and winning a large share of voters who backed the Democratic nominee in 2024. Enten noted that among Harris voters, Mamdani leads Cuomo 64% to 25%.
Enten added that Mamdani performs less well with voters who did not participate in the 2024 election and does poorly with those who voted for Donald Trump. Only 4% of Trump voters indicated they would choose Mamdani in November, the poll found; among Trump voters, Sliwa led with 50%, Cuomo had 23% and Adams had 21%. According to Enten, Mamdani’s totals change little when excluding 2024 voters — he gets 44% support among those who didn’t vote in 2024 versus 46% overall — a finding Enten used to argue Mamdani is not substantially expanding turnout.
The results come after Mamdani’s upset primary victory in June, which drew national attention for the success of a democratic socialist in a crowded Democratic field. Enten cautioned against using Mamdani’s citywide performance as a blueprint for national politics, saying that a message that plays in New York City could face greater resistance with a different, more politically diverse electorate.
The NYT/Siena poll’s findings also show some cross-over: Mamdani reportedly carried roughly 30% of districts that voted for the president in 2024, according to reporting cited by Enten. Still, the overall picture presented by the poll is one in which Mamdani’s current advantage is predominantly rooted in consolidating Democratic voters in a heavily Democratic city rather than in attracting substantial support from Republican or nonvoters.
Campaigns for Mamdani, Cuomo, Sliwa and Adams did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Enten’s analysis and the poll results. The NYT/Siena poll provides the latest snapshot as the mayoral contest moves toward early November, when turnout patterns and cross-party appeal will determine whether Mamdani’s Democratic coalition is sufficient to secure the city’s top municipal office.