CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten has identified two critical polling trends that could indicate substantial challenges for former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
Enten highlighted that white, non-college voters, described as the "heartbeat" of Trump's presidential campaigns, are now contributing to a decline in his standing. "Right now, the heartland is ripping the heart out of Donald Trump’s presidency," Enten stated on CNN This Morning.
Ahead of the 2024 election, Trump held a 25-point advantage over Kamala Harris among this demographic. However, current polling shows Trump with a net approval rating of -2 points with the same group. Enten noted this represents a 27-point drop within a core constituency that was instrumental in Trump's past electoral successes.
"He’s always been reliant on this group, and now even they have turned on him," Enten added.
The analysis also focused on inflation, which Enten identified as a primary driver of Trump's victory in 2024. Trump's net approval rating on inflation among white, non-college voters has plummeted from +24 points in 2024 to -39 points currently. This marks a 63-point shift on an issue considered crucial to his previous reelection.
"Oh my. Oh my goodness gracious," Enten remarked about the drastic change on the key issue that secured Trump's second term among his core supporters. "That’s a change of 63 points in the wrong direction... No wonder he’s so low."