Democrats should “absolutely” want the upcoming midterm elections to focus on former President Donald Trump, according to CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten. Polling indicates that voters currently feel more strongly about electing Republican members of Congress than they do about Trump himself.
Enten cited aggregate poll data showing 41% of voters in favor of picking Republicans for U.S. House seats, compared to 37% approval for Trump. He suggested this dynamic could boost Democratic chances in the midterms, as the party currently holds a national U.S. House ballot average lead of over 6 percentage points. Enten has previously stated that Democrats typically need to win the national House vote by a margin of 3 to 4 points to achieve their goals.
Further supporting this, Enten noted that a July CNN/SSRS poll found Democrats held a 27-point advantage over Republicans among voters who want to use their congressional vote to send a “message” about Trump. Enten pushed back against the idea that Trump could attract new voters by making the midterms about him. He explained that 81% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who are motivated to vote already approve of Trump. Among GOP voters specifically, Trump holds a 58% approval rating. Enten suggested that the Republicans who are less engaged and more likely to be swayed are actually those who tend to dislike the former president. "Again, this is why Democrats are begging, ‘Please, please, please, let’s make this a midterm about President Trump’ because the slew of data suggests that would be a very good midterm for them indeed,” Enten said.