Climate Issues Loom Over Midterm Elections, Despite Voter Priorities

While the economy and healthcare may be top of mind for voters heading into the midterm elections, the climate crisis remains a significant, albeit often secondary, concern that could shape policy regardless of election outcomes. The midterms arrive as the U.S. has seen numerous environmental policy rollbacks during the first two years of the Trump Administration, including withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the repeal of the landmark endangerment finding.

Democrats are notably more likely than Republicans to view climate action as a priority. Advocates are hopeful that a Democratic majority in Congress could prevent further environmental deregulation. "A new government could stop the bleeding," said Malcolm Araos, an assistant professor at New York University's Wagner School of Public Service. "A new Congress, or new Senate can't reverse [many of the climate rollbacks], but they could investigate why [they were] repealed, and they could stop things like that from happening in the future."

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for election. Democrats require a net gain of four seats to control the Senate.

Focus on State-Level Action

With the potential for limited federal climate policy, regardless of the midterm results, many environmental advocates are turning their attention to state-level races. These contests offer opportunities for local climate action, particularly if Democrats achieve a "trifecta"—winning the governor's mansion and a majority in both legislative chambers. Geoffrey Henderson, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan, noted that Democratic trifectas at the state level have historically enabled the passage of transformative climate policies.

Several states, including California, Virginia, and Colorado, have advanced climate policies independently of federal action since President Trump took office.

Ballot Measures Address Climate Concerns

Beyond candidate races, several states feature ballot measures directly related to climate and environmental policy. In Colorado, Amendment 82 will ask voters to decide on the constitutional right to buy and sell natural gas, a measure critics argue could promote fossil fuel reliance and challenge existing climate policies. Meanwhile, a Michigan ballot measure seeks to limit the influence of utility companies in political campaigns, a move that comes as utilities have previously opposed community solar expansion. In Eugene, Oregon, voters will consider a tax on large corporate retailers to fund climate resilience projects, a model similar to a program passed in Portland in 2018.

These measures serve as indicators of public sentiment and approaches to state-level climate policy, according to Henderson.

Emerging Issues and Climate Policy

Two issues that have surfaced as significant voter concerns—the war in Iran and data center development—could also create openings for climate-friendly policies, such as investments in renewable energy. Araos suggested that moments of crisis, such as heightened energy prices due to conflict, can accelerate shifts toward renewable energy sources, enhancing energy security.

Voters in ten states, including California, Kansas, and Ohio, will decide on measures to curb data center development. Climate advocates have aligned with grassroots opposition to data centers, citing their significant energy and water consumption. Henderson views this as a potential opportunity for climate advocates to join a broader coalition addressing land use, costs, and water availability, in addition to climate impacts.