Climate Change Complicates Annual Fall Foliage Season

Millions of people travel across the United States each year to witness the vibrant spectacle of autumn leaves, a tradition that generates billions of dollars in tourism revenue for communities that capitalize on their regions' vivid colors. In the New England area alone, fall foliage tourism has been estimated to bring in over $8 billion annually.

However, pinpointing the ideal time to catch the peak display of reds, oranges, and yellows before winter's arrival is becoming a more challenging task. Experts indicate that predicting peak fall foliage has always been difficult, and the escalating impacts of climate change are further complicating this natural phenomenon.

"Climate change, as with everything, just scrambles the deck," said William Keeton, a professor of forest ecology and forestry at the University of Vermont. He explained that numerous factors influence the colors across the landscape, and these elements can interact in ways that are difficult to anticipate.

Regional Outlook for 2026

For the upcoming season, New England and upstate New York are anticipated to offer some of the most promising foliage views. Forecasts suggest that wet weather in the late spring and early summer, potentially followed by drier conditions and cooler nights heading into autumn, could set the stage for memorable displays in these regions.

Conversely, AccuWeather's forecast indicates that parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast may experience less vivid colors. This prediction is attributed to factors such as cloud cover, increased rainfall, and a lack of the clear, cool nights that contribute to vibrant leaf coloration.

In the western United States, Colorado and the Carolinas could also see diminished color intensity and more brittle leaves. These conditions are linked to ongoing drought in those regions.

Impact of Climate Change on Leaf Peeping

The precise extent to which climate change is affecting the annual change of leaves remains uncertain, as several variables—including rainfall and temperature—influence both the timing and intensity of fall colors. The period between 2015 and 2025 has been globally recognized as the warmest on record, and these elevated temperatures directly impact trees.

"There is some evidence that warming temperatures, especially warmer nighttime temperatures that extend later into the fall, can delay the onset of fall foliage," Keeton noted.

Extreme weather events, such as severe droughts and heavy rainfall, can play a significant role in the vividness of the colors. A sudden cold snap, on the other hand, can accelerate the leaf drop.

"Extreme climate events like severe drought, can reduce the production of the chemical compounds that produce fall color," Keeton stated. "Drought can also stress trees, leading to them dropping their leaves sooner than they otherwise might."

Warmer fall temperatures generally lead to a shorter peak foliage season. However, some research suggests that climate change might, in certain instances, lead to an extended season. This could be due to different tree species responding to changing conditions at different rates.

"We still have the early changers, but some of the other ones are a bit delayed. Instead of having lots of different species all flipping the switch around the same time, we're going to have this extended period," explained Chris Martine, a professor of biology at Bucknell University and president of the Botanical Society of America. He added that what was once a concentrated mosaic of colors might become a more drawn-out display with different species changing at staggered intervals.

Leaves that appear to change color prematurely may be experiencing leaf scorch, a phenomenon common during droughts. "Depending on how bad of a drought you're in and how stressed the trees are. You see the leaves crinkle and die before they can even change," said Stephanie Spera, an associate professor of geography, environment, and sustainability at the University of Richmond.

These combined factors contribute to the increasing difficulty in predicting the peak foliage timing each year. "There are changes afoot, and I think knowing when [peak foliage] is going to be each year is actually a harder thing to predict," Martine commented.

Ultimately, identifying the single best weekend for viewing fall foliage has become largely a matter of chance, according to Spera. "You're just gonna have to bet on a weekend and hope for the best," she advised.