China's rapidly expanding military could soon be capable of striking Australia with missiles, according to a report by the Lowy Institute. The assessment warns that Beijing's growing arsenal, including warships, submarines, heavy bombers, and nuclear weapons, is poised to reshape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific by 2035, posing a real and growing threat of direct attack.
The report outlines several scenarios for potential Chinese military action against Australia, ranging from symbolic strikes intended to intimidate to widespread attacks targeting critical infrastructure and government. These actions could be part of a larger conflict involving the United States or a limited campaign aimed at coercing Australia. Potential targets mentioned include offshore oil facilities, ports, airports, bridges, railway infrastructure, and public utilities like the energy network. The report also notes that a "decapitation" strike targeting political leadership, similar to actions observed in Ukraine, is a possibility.
Beyond direct strikes, China's military growth poses significant threats to Australia's trade routes and undersea communication infrastructure through cyber operations, which do not require physical proximity to the Australian landmass. Experts estimate that China's shipbuilding capacity is now vastly larger than that of the United States, and Beijing is expected to triple its nuclear weapons arsenal by 2035.
Michael Shoebridge, director of Strategic Analysis Australia, expressed alarm at these findings, stating that China possesses weapons capable of reaching Australia from its mainland, as well as from warships and submarines. He noted that Australia's current military capabilities offer limited defense against such threats. The economic implications are also substantial, as the Chinese Navy could potentially blockade Australian ports, disrupting maritime trade which is crucial to the nation's economy. The Lowy Institute report indicates that China's growing surface fleet already poses a threat to Australian maritime trade routes, particularly those passing through the Indonesian archipelago. Interdiction of these routes could lead to increased insurance premiums, deter commercial shipping, and cause broader economic damage.
The report also points to the growing sophistication and size of China's submarine fleet, which enhances its ability to strike targets on the Australian mainland. Shoebridge emphasized that this threat cannot be ignored, given Australia's reliance on maritime trade. He observed that China's navy has evolved from operating closer to its shores to possessing the capability to deploy globally, with an increasing presence in Australia's neighborhood.
Recent incidents have underscored these concerns. In July, Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong condemned China's "destabilizing and risky" behavior following an incident between the China Coast Guard and the Philippine military. Earlier that month, the People's Liberation Army Navy conducted a ballistic missile test in the Pacific Ocean with a range potentially reaching Brisbane. Experts suggest such actions could be linked to China's efforts to expand its influence in the Pacific, seeking resources and aiming to displace the U.S. presence in the region.
Cyber threats are also a significant concern, with the Lowy Institute warning that Chinese cyber actors have been detected operating within critical infrastructure networks in allied countries, pre-positioned for potential activation during a crisis. The Australian Signals Directorate has confirmed that state-sponsored Chinese cyber actors are actively targeting Australian critical infrastructure networks. Shoebridge highlighted the potential for Chinese-made artificial intelligence software to be used in cyberattacks, allowing access to technology systems and the theft of sensitive information or control over critical systems.
Shoebridge criticized the Australian government's response, stating that while the acknowledgment that geography no longer provides protection is positive, there has been insufficient progress in bolstering defense capabilities, particularly in air and missile defense. He noted that Australia currently lacks significant missile defense capabilities beyond a few destroyers and short-range systems, leaving it vulnerable to Chinese coercion. While the government has committed substantial funding to cyber defenses, Shoebridge argued that this investment is insufficient to address the growing threat posed by artificial intelligence, stressing the urgent need for increased investment in AI to keep pace with emerging challenges.