China Rapidly Expanding Nuclear Arsenal, Defying De-escalation Pledges, Report Finds

China's nuclear arsenal is expanding at an accelerated pace under President Xi Jinping, according to an analysis of satellite imagery, despite the Chinese leader's public calls for de-escalation and nuclear non-proliferation. At least seven nuclear test and construction facilities have reportedly been expanded or newly established in recent months, with significant infrastructure development observed across the country.

One analyzed location shows the emergence of an entire town surrounding a nuclear facility, complete with apartment blocks, sports fields, and a staff bus depot. Another site features a 2,000-foot tube believed to be used for testing the resilience of nuclear weapons against enemy attacks. A third site appears to be investigating the effects of nuclear blasts using advanced laser technology. In some instances, entire villages and farming communities have been displaced to accommodate the construction of these facilities.

This expansion occurs against the backdrop of China's stated commitments, including a "no first use" policy for its nuclear weapons and its signature on the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which advocates for the cessation of open-explosion tests. Since President Xi assumed office in 2012, China's nuclear warhead count has reportedly more than doubled, reaching an estimated 620 warheads as of January. In comparison, the United States possesses approximately 5,300 warheads, and Russia has around 5,500.

Experts project that if China continues its current rate of expansion, its arsenal could reach 1,500 warheads by 2035. Some of these weapons are capable of striking targets across intercontinental distances, including the United States.

China maintains a comprehensive nuclear triad, with capabilities for launching nuclear-dipped missiles from land, submarines, and aircraft. In 2024, the nation reportedly allocated an estimated $12.4 billion to its nuclear forces. This surge in development coincides with former President Donald Trump's previous directives to resume nuclear weapons testing. In October of the previous year, Trump announced on Truth Social, "Because of other countries’ testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis."

This report on China's nuclear expansion emerges as President Xi Jinping is visiting Washington D.C. for a three-day engagement, an event anticipated to involve significant behind-the-scenes negotiations alongside public displays.