China publicly announced it launched a ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the Pacific Ocean, a rare acknowledgment of its sea-based nuclear capabilities. The exercise occurred Monday as U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific region deepen security ties and NATO leaders prepare to convene amid growing concerns over Beijing's military ambitions.
The People's Liberation Army Navy stated the missile, carrying a dummy warhead, was fired from a Type 094 Jin-class ballistic missile submarine as part of a routine annual training exercise. The Pentagon has identified China's ability to field a more survivable nuclear force capable of threatening the U.S. and its allies from the sea as a significant long-term concern. Submarine-launched ballistic missiles are considered a highly survivable component of a nation's nuclear arsenal due to the difficulty in detecting and destroying submerged submarines before they can launch a retaliatory strike.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning described the launch as routine, consistent with international law, and not directed at any specific country or target. "The whole process was safe, standard and professional. We hope relevant countries will not read too much into it," Ning said.
The missile test took place on the eve of NATO's summit in Ankara, Turkey, where leaders are expected to discuss the war in Ukraine, defense spending, and collective security, with China's growing strategic challenge also on the agenda. In recent years, NATO has increased engagement with Indo-Pacific partners, reflecting a perceived interconnection between security in Europe and the Pacific.
New Zealand, which has a defense pact with Fiji, noted the missile landed in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, a region where atomic weapon testing is prohibited. While China stated the missile carried a dummy warhead and New Zealand did not accuse Beijing of violating the Treaty of Rarotonga, officials criticized the launch as inconsistent with the spirit of maintaining a nuclear-free Pacific.
Australia's foreign minister Penny Wong stated that while China had informed Australia of the test beforehand, "Australia has been clear with China that we regard this as destabilizing to the region." Wong also cited China's military buildup as a cause for concern, describing it as "lacking in the transparency and reassurance as to intent that the region expect."
Japan expressed "serious concern over the intensification of China’s military activities and strongly urged China to reconsider its actions."
The Pentagon has repeatedly warned of China's rapid modernization and expansion of its nuclear forces, projecting that Beijing will continue to increase the size, sophistication, and survivability of its arsenal throughout the next decade. China's military has also expanded naval patrols beyond the first island chain, increased military pressure on Taiwan, and asserted territorial claims in the South China Sea.
The Pentagon projects China will possess more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, an increase from an estimated stockpile in the low 600s through 2024. Beijing is reportedly expanding all three legs of its nuclear triad—land-based missiles, strategic bombers, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines—while enhancing its ability to survive a first strike and retaliate.
Concurrently, the People's Liberation Army Navy operates the world's largest fleet by number of battle force ships and has deployed advanced hypersonic weapons, expanded long-range missile forces, and invested heavily in artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and space-based systems. U.S. officials suggest these capabilities are designed to challenge American military advantages in the Indo-Pacific.
U.S. defense officials have also cautioned that China continues to refine capabilities for a potential conflict over Taiwan, including joint operations involving naval, air, missile, and amphibious forces. Annual military exercises around Taiwan have become larger and more complex, reflecting Beijing's efforts to increase military pressure and rehearse operations that could support a blockade or invasion.
The U.S. has maintained a sea-based nuclear deterrent for decades with its fleet of Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, which conduct routine patrols and test launches of Trident II D5 ballistic missiles. The Navy is in the process of replacing these submarines with the next-generation Columbia class, expected to enter service later this decade. Unlike China, the U.S. regularly publicizes scheduled Trident missile tests and operates a mature fleet of ballistic missile submarines considered the most survivable leg of America's nuclear triad.